The 2022-23 college basketball season is officially in the books and the 2022-23 NBA regular season is now, too, so what better time than the present -- with the NBA postseason kicking into gear and the offseason starting for nearly half the league -- to pull out the crystal ball and look ahead to the NBA Draft?
So with some relative clarity about how the draft landscape will look later this summer, at least before the lottery and before tiebreakers, today we're going to do exactly that. You'll notice that at the top there are familiar names who have been mainstays in our mocks -- Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson hang on to the top spots here despite buzz that Alabama's Brandon Miller may push for top-two status -- and there is also some new faces as well. It reflects what has been a fairly stable landscape of late with some risers and fallers but, on the whole, a pretty firm top group in a loaded class.
Some of the names will change in the coming weeks and months as the draft process plays out and as players get feedback about whether they will ultimately stay in the draft or return to school, but with the NBA Draft Combine and lottery less than a month away, there is space now to project ahead and try to nail down the bones and structure of what we think (think!) this year's draft may look like.
OK, let's get to it.
Round 1 - Pick 1
LeBron James said he is "like an alien." Stephen Curry thinks he is "like a cheat code." I think he's the "clear No. 1 in this class and it is not close." You can quote me on that one. The 7-foot-4 center/forward/guard/unicorn might be the best prospect basketball has ever seen.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Brandon Miller's rise this season combined with Henderson's stagnated development as a shooter makes this a tougher pick than it might've seemed a few months ago, but Henderson's still a gamble I'd take with joy. He's a fiery, swaggy competitor who has elite handles, major athletic pop and a creative mind that perfectly fits the NBA point guard position.
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Round 1- Pick 3
Off the court, NBA teams are likely to have questions about Miller after he was connected to, and on the scene of, a fatal shooting during the season. On the court, though, 6-9 forwards who have the scoring and creation ability Miller has don't slip out of the top five.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Villanova had its worst season by win percentage in more than a decade in 2022-23, largely keeping Whitmore's star power hidden beneath the radar. I like him as much as any of the non Wemby/Henderson players in this class, though, and the combination of his powerful athleticism and shot-making at the wing position makes him very appealing.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Both Thompson twins might be top-10 picks in this class but I slightly favor Amen over his brother, Ausar, because of his playmaking and ability to make advanced reads. He's an elite athlete who could be the initiator for an NBA offense, and players with that profile at 6-6 are very, very valuable.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
The efficiency with which George produced at Baylor as a freshman leaves a little to be desired but the 19-year-old combo guard has the shot-making to be one of the best pure scorers in this class. Lots of promise here with his playmaking, too, and though he was turnover-prone, there's room for him in time to grow into one of the best guards in this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Kentucky guards underwhelming in college and becoming stars in the NBA has been something of a regular occurrence, and Wallace profiles as someone who can keep that tradition alive. He didn't dominate as a freshman but he showed off a ton of versatility on offense while routinely making highlight reel plays as a difference-maker on the defensive side of the floor.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Thompson had a big season with OTE this past year and has the physical tools and makeup that NBA teams so desperately crave at the wing spot. He's a big athlete like his twin brother, Amen, and brings polish and pizazz to the position as someone with big upside.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
This feels like the absolute floor for Walker, one of the most physically ready prospects in this draft class. He plays with relentless energy on both ends and projects cleanly as a do-it-all power forward who can stretch the floor.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
A nagging knee injury cost Smith Jr. real exposure to showcase himself on a big stage this season as he played in less than half of Arkansas' games, only to return and struggle down the stretch. But the No. 1 recruit from the 2022 class, an immensely talented scorer and slasher, is still someone I'd be giddy to gamble on in this range.
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From
Chicago Bulls
Round 1 - Pick 11
If Black makes it to No. 11 on draft night, then I think you'd have to take him here regardless of roster situation. He's a connector-type prospect with a big frame who plays selflessly. Defends multiple positions, extremely savvy, does a little of everything that affects winning.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Dick missed 14 of his 20 shot attempts in his final two games vs. ranked opponents to end the season, a gripe I hear constantly from KU fans. But in the NBA he will demand less attention and his skill set as a result should shine. If he's a third or fourth option who is asked only to play in transition and knock down 3-pointers I think he can be among the best in that role in this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Hawkins shined for UConn in its run to the national championship with his stellar sharpshooting on full display. He hit nearly 40% from 3-point range on the season and rated in the 97th percentile this season as a spot-up shooter, according to Synergy data. His off-ball movement and shooting ability in various situations makes him a really exciting wing prospect.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
The younger brother of 2022 lottery pick Keegan Murray, Kris Murray had a breakout season for Iowa averaging north of 20 points per game while showing off range as a 3-point shooter. He's a combo forward who brings versatility, polish and size to a position that NBA teams prioritize versatility, polish and size.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
NBA teams are always on the hunt for combo guard/creators like Hood-Schifino, and he flashed enough on both ends at Indiana to push for a potential lottery spot in this year's draft. Great frame, really good defensively, and knows how to attack and make plays off the bounce. His shot needs to become more developmentally consistent but the tools here are undeniable.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Hendricks has been a meteoric riser this season launching from off the radar to in the mix as a potential top-10 pick in the class. He projects as a stretch big who can excel as the roll man and has excellent shooting touch inside and out.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Whitehead had a topsy-turvy season at Duke and didn't quite live up to expectations as a five-star, consensus top-five recruit, in part because of injuries and in part because of inconsistencies. But there's enough pedigree and production here to like in this range given how well he shot the ball, and there should be hope that his pre-injury burst returns as he gets further removed from them.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
The stats above don't do justice to how impactful Lively was at the end of the season for Duke and how impactful he can be as an NBA player. He's an above-the-rim threat on both ends of the floor who can be a game-changer defensively protecting the basket.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
I'm not ranking Jackson this high on the Big Board but I won't be surprised if he goes higher than expected and jumps into this range. The former No. 1 overall recruit in his class reclassified and is one of the youngest players in the class. NBA teams love youth with room to grow, and Jackson presents an intriguing developmental case.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 20
Big men who don't shoot 3-pointers don't pop off the page as definite first-rounders, and yet Jackson-Davis by most measures appears to be an anomaly. He's a dominant interior scorer and rebounder who shows great touch and makes great plays as a passer. You can funnel some of your offense through him. A nice bet on someone who isn't Domantas Sabonis but has lots of Domantas Sabonis-like traits.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 21
As a four-star prospect ranked 85th in his class, Sensabaugh wasn't even on the one-and-done radar entering the season. But his production with Ohio State is tough to ignore. Uses his big frame well and smashed in his role as a rotation piece hitting 40.5% of his 3-pointers on the year.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Miller tested the NBA Draft waters and had some first-round buzz before ultimately withdrawing and committing to the G League Ignite. Now he's built upon that momentum as a scorer and rebounder who, while still a tad raw, has the physical tools and size to warrant mid-to-late lottery consideration.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 1 - Pick 23
This is a bit of a plunge from where I last had Howard -- which was late lottery -- but I'm still very much in on him as a top-30 player in this class. Really good shooter with an excellent frame who has touch on floaters, in the mid-range and from beyond the 3-point line.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Rupert is a toolsy prospect with a great frame and a defensive baseline that presents promise, but he remains very raw in terms of what he can bring to the table on the offensive end. If his shot comes around there's a lot to like, but there's not much right now that suggests he can be an NBA player anytime soon. Definitely a developmental prospect.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
A second-year player for Michigan, Bufkin blossomed into a bona fide first-round talent this past season. He has a nice combination of scoring and creation that might make him an appealing two-way guard in the league.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 26
One of my favorite prospects in this class. Jones is one of those players who can fade in and out of games, then you look up and he has 10 points, seven assists and eight rebounds. Impacts winning in a variety of ways.
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From
Denver Nuggets
Round 1 - Pick 27
Wilson was the best player in the best league last season, making a leap to stardom at Kansas. He's made steady improvements as a shooter over the years and has always been an excellent rebounder at his size and position. Teams may be scared off by his age -- he's a four-year player -- but the developmental trajectory he's on has me buying his NBA stock.
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From
Philadelphia 76ers
Round 1 - Pick 28
Another four-year player who may be overlooked by teams looking for youth. Jaquez doesn't wow with athleticism, but he's a smooth operator who has the smarts and skill to stick as a role player.
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From
Boston Celtics
Round 1 - Pick 29
Smith is a twitchy athlete who I thought was a first-round talent a year ago before withdrawing and returning to NC State. He basically held steady production-wise but his improvement as a passer and decision-maker has unlocked even more upside for him.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 30
After Peyton Watson was snagged in the first round last year after an underwhelming one-and-done season at UCLA, I find it highly unlikely Bailey and his five-star pedigree slip further in this draft. He was admittedly streaky, but he flashed some scoring punch down the stretch for the Bruins and has nice flash as an athlete that could make him a slasher/scorer type in the league.
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