The Cup Series will head to its second road course of the season with the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Sunday's race begins at 3:30 p.m. ET. William Byron was victorious at the first road course at COTA in March. Byron is one of two drivers with three checkered flags this season, joining Denny Hamlin, with the latter topping the Cup Series standings. Meanwhile, Austin Cindric is the only driver entering 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma off a victory, courtesy of his win in Illinois a week ago.

However, a driver without a victory this year tops the  2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds board, with Martin Truex Jr. the 5-1 favorite. Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson follow at 15-2, with Byron at 17-2. Hamlin is a longshot in NASCAR at Sonoma odds at 20-1. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.

Top 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 predictions

For the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350, the model is high on Daniel Suarez, even though he's a 25-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. Now in his eighth season in the Cup Series, Suarez has notched just two victories over 260 races. However, both are relevant as one came earlier this season at Atlanta, narrowly defeating Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch in the fourth-closest finish in Cup Series history. Suarez' other win just so happened to come at Sonoma two years ago.

Suarez's team in Trackhouse Racing has had a lot of success at Sonoma, with four top-12 finishes over five driver starts at the track. Trackhouse's average finish of 10.4 at Sonoma ranks as the second-best amongst any NASCAR team, trailing only RFK Racing (8.0). In addition to Suarez's previous NASCAR at Sonoma win, he also has five career top 5s at other road courses. There are a dozen drivers with shorter odds than Suarez, but his track history and team success make him a longshot to get behind with 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 bets.

Another massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the top Vegas favorites at 15-2, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 starting lineup. Bell has already mathematically guaranteed himself a spot in the postseason with two victories and he's currently eighth in the NASCAR standings.

He's also a capable road racer with two victories and top 10s in half of his career NASCAR Cup Series starts on road courses. However, his best finish in three career starts at Sonoma Raceway was ninth last season and he was outside the top 20 the previous two years. He hasn't led a lap in those three races and the model predicts that he won't be a serious threat on Sunday either. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota/Save Mart 350 2024 at Sonoma, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.

2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Sonoma picks at SportsLine

Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Christopher Bell 15-2
Kyle Larson 15-2
Ty Gibbs 17-2
William Byron 17-2
Chase Elliott 9-1
Tyler Reddick 19-2
Chris Buescher 14-1
A.J. Allmendinger 14-1
Michael McDowell 15-1
Austin Cindric 20-1
Denny Hamlin 20-1
Ross Chastain 25-1
Ryan Blaney 25-1
Kyle Busch 25-1
Daniel Suarez 25-1
Will Brown 28-1
Joey Logano 40-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
Cam Waters 50-1
Brad Keselowski 75-1
Todd Gilliland 100-1
Justin Haley 100-1
Carson Hocevar 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Bubba Wallace 250-1
Austin Dillon 400-1
John Hunter Nemechek 500-1
Noah Gragson 500-1
Corey Lajoie 500-1
Ryan Preece 750-1
Erik Jones 750-1
Zane Smith 750-1
Josh Berry 750-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1000-1
Daniel Hemric 1000-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Kaz Grala 1000-1