Chase Elliott has been back for the last two NASCAR races after missing much of the season due to a snowboarding accident. After 10th- and 12th-place finishes in his last two outings, he'll look for his first win this year on Monday in the 2023 Wurth 400. He is 13-2 in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Dover odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Elliott won last year's NASCAR at Dover race when it was known as the DuraMAX Drydene 400 after he started in fourth and led for 73 laps. The 2023 Dover NASCAR green flag drops at 12 p.m. ET.

Elliott has won twice at Dover Motor Speedway since 2018, with three top-five finishes, and might have more accolades there had it not been for an accident in 2020 and engine trouble in 2019. While Elliott hasn't shown much rust since his return, he'll be up against other 2023 Wurth 400 contenders like Denny Hamlin (7-1), William Byron (13-2) and Kyle Larson (9-2). Before scouring the 2023 Wurth 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Dover predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Wurth 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1) and Kyle Larson's win at Martinsville (6-1). In Austin, it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values when he won for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 10 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Wurth 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Dover leaderboard.

Top 2023 Wurth 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Dover odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch hasn't won back-to-back races since 2019, but he already has more wins than he did all of last season, and has been reasonably successful at Dover in recent appearances. He has finished seventh or better in three of his last five races there, and 11th in another.

This year, Busch has had a cumulative gain rating of 2.6, which tracks quality of passes based on difficulty, and eighth among all drivers. Additionally, Busch has been strong on mile-long intermediate tracks, with a top-three and five top-10 performances on such courses since 2021. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: William Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Wurth 400 starting lineup.

Byron has a pair of victories already this season and is now a six-time Cup winner but the 25-year-old has also finished outside the top 10 in six of his 10 starts. He finished 22nd at Dover last season and has been outside the top 10 in five of his eight career starts at "The Monster Mile." See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Dover picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Dover NASCAR odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Wurth 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Dover odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Dover NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel, Pala Casino 400 and NOCO 400.

2023 Wurth 400 odds, lineup

See full 2023 NASCAR at Dover picks at SportsLine

Kyle Larson 9-2
Chase Elliott 13-2
William Byron 13-2
Denny Hamlin 7-1
Christopher Bell 8-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Ross Chastain 12-1
Kyle Busch 14-1
Tyler Reddick 18-1
Joey Logano 20-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Josh Berry 25-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Chris Buescher 30-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Brad Keselowski 35-1
Ryan Preece 40-1
Daniel Suarez 45-1
Aric Almirola 50-1
Ty Gibbs 50-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 66-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Austin Cindric 100-1
Michael McDowell 125-1
Justin Haley 150-1
Erik Jones 150-1
A.J. Allmendinger 150-1
Todd Gilliland 200-1
Noah Gragson 300-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Ty Dillon 1250-1
JJ Yeley 2000-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1