We're now just weeks away from Aug. 29, an important milestone for hardcore baseball transaction enthusiasts. That date, in case it doesn't ring a bell, will mark a year since the Los Angeles Angels raised the white flag by placing starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, relief pitchers Matt Moore, Dominic Leone, and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers.
The Angels' objectives were to cut costs and avoid luxury tax penalties. They succeeded in that pursuit. Because the trade deadline had long since passed, the Angels were unable to recoup any players or minor-league talent in return for those players; their only gains were losses -- that is, the shedding of the financial commitments owed to the claimed players (Giolito, Moore, Leone, López, and Renfroe). Those players, by the way, remained eligible for postseason play upon joining their new teams as they beat the Aug. 31 deadline.
In the aftermath of the Angels' mass-waiving, we talked to other front offices who didn't believe this would become a rite of August. With any luck, they'll be proven correct. Even so, we felt the upcoming anniversary made for an appropriate time to examine if there were teams who may find themselves tempted to pull the same trick.
To identify potential teams -- and we found three plausible candidates, to be clear -- we used three factors as guideposts. Teams had to meet at least two of the three qualifications in order to be considered for inclusion in this piece.
Before we break down our three teams and render verdicts on whether or not we think they'll follow suit, let's explain our guideposts.
- Dwindling playoff chances: Predictably, we're looking for a team that has minimal or greatly diminished playoff chances. The Angels, for example, were six games back of the final American League wild-card spot with 30 games to play. Their actual chances of closing the gap were even more remote than those numbers suggested, as they had lost their two best players (Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout) to injury.
- Luxury tax implications: Again, the Angels were motivated foremost by saving money. In ducking under the tax line (and they just did get underneath it), they avoided an overage fee and preserved the best form of draft-pick compensation they could get from losing Ohtani to free agency. We suppose a team without any luxury tax fears could still go down this road, but if they do, they should be appropriately shamed.
- Slew of impending free agents: Every single player waived by the Angels was closing in on free agency, meaning the team was essentially punting on having them around for September and nothing more. We don't think even the most nihilistic of operations would be willing to give away a season-plus of a valued player to save a little money.
Now, onto our three teams. Do note they're presented in no particular order.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays entered Thursday nine games out of the American League's final wild-card spot, leaving them with almost no realistic pathway to the postseason. The Blue Jays' luxury tax situation is less certain. Some public estimates have them just under the threshold, others have them just above. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said the team's internal estimates had them on the "razor's edge" after the deadline. Toronto made a point of not trading multi-year pieces like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette at the deadline, suggesting that anyone with more team control is staying put. Given that the Blue Jays have just one impending free agent left, southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, it's hard to see how they can gain more tax relief over the coming month. Verdict: Probably not going to do it because they don't have the kind of free-agent crop needed to pull it off and waiving multi-year pieces would cut against deadline approach.
2. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs entered the season considered to be one of, if not the favorite in the National League Central. So much for that. The Cubs now have less than a 3% chance at cracking October. They appear to be a few million below the lowest tax threshold, according to public estimates. In turn, that means there's less incentive for them to waive any of their impending free agents or players with options for next year -- be it relief pitchers Drew Smyly or Héctor Neris or utility player David Bote. We suppose the Cubs could also place starter Kyle Hendricks on waivers, but he's not going to get claimed and it would be a lousy way to send off someone who contributed so much to the franchise. Verdict: Probably not going to do it because there's no real luxury tax implications.
3. Texas Rangers
Injuries and underperformance have combined to derail the Rangers' chances of becoming the first repeat World Series champions in more than two decades. Indeed, the Rangers enter Thursday with 1.1% playoff odds, according to SportsLine. Texas is about $12 million over the luxury tax line, per Spotrac's calculations. We doubt that general manager Chris Young is the kind to give up, but the Rangers do have a number of impending free agents they could waive to get closer to the threshold. Among them: pitchers Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Kirby Yates, Andrew Chafin, and José Leclerc. Verdict: Probably not going to do it because it goes against their philosophy.
Our takeaway is that there doesn't appear to be a club with the trifecta that the 2023 Angels had going for them. Hopefully that means those evaluators we spoke to last August are proven correct about it being an aberration rather than the new norm.
