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All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus
🔥 The Hot Ticket
- The Pick: Rays -1.5 (-130)
- Key trend: The Rays have won four of their last five games by at least two runs.
The Rays have really found their stride of late, so I have no problem backing them to win by multiple runs.
Tampa Bay has been swinging the bats well over the past week. The Rays have scored a mind-blowing 30 runs in just their last two games, which resulted in winning those contests by at least eight runs each. It shouldn't be all that surprising considering the Rays rank fourth in runs scored.
On top of their elite offensive performances, the Rays have gotten some strong innings from deadline acquisition Aaron Civale. Since coming over from the Guardians, the right-hander has tallied a 2.93 ERA in three starts, and the Rays have been victorious in two of those outings. In those three starts, Civale has displayed terrific command as he walked just two batters in 15 1/3 innings.
The Rockies are a team that I'm happy to fade whenever plausible. After all, Colorado has the third-fewest wins in the majors and has dropped nine of its last 12 games. In those nine losses, the Rockies are losing those games by an average of 3.7 runs, including being defeated by at least two runs in seven of those contests. Rockies starter Austin Gomber is coming off of a performance in which he surrendered six earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks. Gomber also has a 5.52 ERA in 2023, so the Rays should be able to get to him here.
💰 More MLB picks
- The Pick: Over 9 (-104)
- Key trend: The over is 6-1 in the Astros last seven games.
The Astros and Red Sox both possess dangerous offenses that rank among some of the best in baseball. With two starting pitchers toting large ERAs, the over is definitely where the money is in this spot.
Entering Wednesday, the Astros are averaging 5.6 runs across their last 10 games, including scoring 22 runs across their last three games alone. With a lineup as lethal as the Astros, they'll certainly benefit from facing Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale. Sale isn't exactly the ace that he used to be several years ago. In fact, he has had his fair share of struggles when pitching on the road as he owns a 5.20 ERA in seven starts away from Fenway Park in 2023. Considering the Astros have scored the sixth-most runs in the majors, they should be able to pile up some runs against Sale.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox lineup has been just as explosive when it comes to putting runs on the board. This is a team that is averaging 5.1 runs in their last 10 games. Much like Sale, Astros starter Jose Urquidy hasn't exactly been a consistent arm. Urquidy has tallied a 5.21 ERA on the year in addition to surrendering at least five earned runs in two of his last five outings. The Red Sox have pushed across the eighth-most runs in baseball on the year, so I'm expecting them to be able to score a decent amount against Urquidy here.
Dodgers at Guardians, 7:10 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Clayton Kershaw Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Key trend: Kershaw has registered four strikeouts or less in three of his last five starts.
Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw certainly isn't the strikeout machine he was earlier in his career. Facing a team like the Guardians that doesn't strike out much makes the under on Kershaw's strikeouts prop the way to go here.
Kershaw's strikeouts have been minimal over his most recent starts. In fact, the veteran left-hander has tallied four or fewer strikeouts in three of his last five appearances. Kershaw is coming off of a start in which he recorded just two strikeouts in five innings against the Brewers. In addition, the Dodgers starter has put together just six strikeouts across his last two outings. The Guardians are one of the most disciplined teams at the plate as they strike out the fewest times in all of baseball. This just isn't a spot where I see Kershaw tallying a boatload of Ks against Cleveland.