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Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich won the NL MVP in 2018 and was the runner-up in 2019. He won two batting titles during that stretch while hitting 80 home runs, driving in 207, and stealing 52 bases. He was one of the best players in baseball during that stretch, but his production hasn't been the same since signing a $215 million contract extension in 2020. However, that's not to say that Yelich isn't still a good player. He made his third All-Star appearance last season and was on his way to putting up his best numbers since that magical two-year run in 2024 before injuries cut his season short.

Yelich is back in 2025, and he's been an absolute machine over the last month, recording a 1.122 OPS, seven home runs and 27 RBI over his last 24 games. Yelich is 12-for-22 with 11 RBI over his last five games, and he's one of our top MLB HR picks on Sunday with the latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel listing him at +440 to hit his 15th homer of the season. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 22.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 75 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 22:

Christian Yelich, Brewers (+440)

The veteran outfielder has five extra-base hits (four doubles and two home runs) over his last five games, and he's putting up a solid .256/.336/.443 slash line despite a BABIP this season that is more than 30 points below his career average. He'll take on Twins righty David Festa on Sunday, and Festa has given up four home runs in his last three starts.

"Yelich is hitting .311 on the road with 9 home runs compared to just .189 with 5 home runs at home. He has also hit 13 of his 14 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "Some books have this line as low as +300, so getting +440 is a strong value. We set Yelich's line at +350." You can also get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins with the latest FanDuel promo code.

Marcell Ozuna, Braves (+550)

Ozuna has only managed two home runs so far in June, but he does have an extra-base hit in three of his last five games. He's in the top 30% of MLB hitters in expected slugging (.495), average exit velocity (91.3 mph), barrel rate (11.3%), hard-hit contact rate (49.7%) and bat speed (73.7 mph). He's also got an excellent matchup on Sunday.

"Ozuna has had a lot of success against Sandy Alcantara in his career (9-22, .409 BA), but he has yet to hit a homer off of him," Fetner said. "Alcantara has started to turn things around after a rough start to his season, but he did allow 2 HRs in his last start." The model sets the line at +350 for Ozuna to homer, but DraftKings is offering this listed price and you could add even more value with the latest DraftKings promo code.

Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (+470)

His best days are likely behind him, but Arenado is still a capable daily contributor as an excellent defender with power that excels against left-handed pitching. He's hitting .307 against lefties this season and has an exceptional .922 career OPS against southpaws. He'll enjoy a lefty vs. righty matchup on Sunday, and ballpark factors will also be working in his favor, making him one of the best values available for MLB HR bets.

"Arenado is 7-15 with two home runs against Abbott in his career, so he has already had a great deal of success against him. The home run index is at a 10 out of 10 in this game, which could turn a long fly ball into a home run," Fetner said. "Arenado is coming off back-to-back games with a home run. Arenado is also at home, where he has an .813 OPS compared to a .688 OPS on the road." FanDuel is offering the best price for this MLB HR prop.

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More MLB picks for Sunday

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 168-93 roll (+1869.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine's Bruce Marshall is also 16-12-1 (+546) over his last 29 MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Sunday.