I'm generally pretty skeptical about 32-year-olds breaking out. But after the Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Round 1, it was hard not to get excited about Geno Smith. Smith was genuinely good last year and now had one of the most talented wide receiver trios in the NFL. What could go wrong?
Well, they could lose to the Rams in Week 1, Smith could lose both of his starting tackles and the offense could look completely anemic. Now, it's easy to remember that Smith was a journeyman backup quarterback who had thrown for 1,346 yards and more interceptions than touchdowns in the seven seasons before 2022. While he was outstanding last year, you'll generally make a profit betting against career years from 32-year-olds.
- Week 2 previews: | |
My concern also has to do with the circumstances. Smith was at home against a Rams defense that we thought was going to be bad this year. He had DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth Walker all healthy. There was no reason to expect such a severe dropoff from his 2022 level of play other than the fact that 2022 was the only year Smith had been that good.
He draws the Lions this week, which is a defense we just don't know much about yet. We believe it is better than it was last year, but we don't know enough to say if it is actually good. If Smith is going to bounce back, this is a fine place to do it. If he doesn't, we can really start worrying.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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Week 2 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 10 -- Rush attempts for Anthony Richardson in Week 1. That's how many Jalen Hurts averaged the past two seasons in Philadelphia.
- 2 -- Brock Purdy has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every regular season game he's started in the NFL.
- 38.1% -- Daniel Jones was pressured on 38% of his drop backs against Dallas. The Giants will hope that number is significantly lower against the Cardinals.
- 13.5% -- 13.5% of Patrick Mahomes' passes were dropped on Thursday night. Kadarius Toney was the main culprit.
- 33% -- A third of Joe Burrow's Week 1 passes were rated as bad throws by Pro Football Reference. That number was 12.9% last year.
- 53 -- Josh Allen has 53 turnovers since the start of 2020, the most in the NFL.
- 7,922 -- Tua Tagovailoa is on pace for 7,922 passing yards. That would be a record.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Sam Howell QB
WAS Washington • #14
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
I'm not letting a mediocre performance in Week 1 scare me off Howell in Week 2. He got into the end zone once with his legs and I would expect Terry McLaurin to be more help in Week 2. Expect more than 31 pass attempts as well since the Commanders aren't facing the Cardinals anemic offense.
TEN Tennessee • #17
Age: 35 • Experience: 12 yrs.
Tannehill was awful in Week 1, but so was the Chargers defense. This profiles as a pass-heavy game script due to the matchup against the Chargers high-powered offense.
Kyler Murray QB
ARI Arizona • #1
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
I'll leave this here for one more week. Murray should be rostered in every league that has an IR spot. You don't even have to drop anyone to add him. Go get him, stash him, and then wait and see. We're expecting Murray will show up in six to eight weeks. If he's his old self by the Fantasy playoffs, you've got found money.
Josh Allen QB
BUF Buffalo • #17
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
That was a brutal performance and a brutal loss for Allen and the Bills in Week 1. I fully expect a violent bounce back against the Raiders in Week 2. This was one of the worst defenses against the pass in 2022 and I didn't see anything in Week 1 that makes me think that has changed. Diggs is the obvious stacking partner with Allen, but I expect a boom from Gabe Davis and James Cook as well.
Jones never had a chance against the Cowboys in Week 1 and got embarrassed on prime-time television. Like Allen, I expect a big-time bounce back against a bad defense. Unlike Allen, I don't think everyone else is on board. Jones' rushing ability makes the stack optional, but you know he wants to get Darren Waller going, so I'd stack the pair alongside Saquon Barkley.
My full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 2. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.