It's been a roller coaster ride trying to capture Fantasy points from the Kansas City Chiefs' backfield, but for as long as he stays healthy we now expect Jerick McKinnon to level out as a Fantasy starter.
For what it's worth, the Chiefs have always treated McKinnon like their most valuable back. He's consistently ranked towards the top in terms of red zone snaps, and third-down snaps, and he's played the most whenever a game was in doubt. But we don't receive Fantasy points for snaps played, so outside of a two-game stretch with six catches, he'd mostly been an afterthought, at least until the last three weeks.
In Week 13 against the Bengals, McKinnon finally scored his first touchdown, but that was easy enough to ignore because he only had 10 touches and 60 total yards. The following week against the Broncos he saw a season-high 13 touches and turned them into 134 yards and two scores. But even heading into last week's game against the Texans there was some reason for doubt, it looked more like an Isiah Pacheco game.
A Pacheco fumble changed that and may have changed the fortunes for McKinnon's Fantasy managers. He tied a season-high with a 62% snap share, set a season-high with 18 touches, and again scored two touchdowns. This week, you'll see him as a consensus top-20 running back and a must-start option against the Seattle Seahawks. And if he can keep this up for two more weeks, he may be remembered as a league-winning waiver wire add as well.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 16 RB Preview:
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Week 16 RB Preview
The following players are not being projected to play in Week 16 at this time. Here's what it means:
Numbers to know
- 145.7 -- Christian McCaffrey is averaging 145 yards from scrimmage in the three games he's played with Brock Purdy.
- 892 -- Derrick Henry has 892 yards rushing in his last four games against the Texans.
- 23 -- Alvin Kamara saw 23 touches in Week 15, his most since Week 5. He could top that number in a terrible weather game in Cleveland.
- 78.6 -- Jerick McKinnon has scored 78.6 PPR Fantasy points over the last three weeks, second only to Christian McCaffrey at running back.
- 4 -- Najee Harris has four catches, for just 27 yards, over his last four games. He's a much better option in non-PPR.
- 37% -- Jamaal Williams hasn't played more than 37% of the snaps since Week 12. He only had one game below 37% from Week 3 through Week 12.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Zack Moss RB
IND Indianapolis • #21
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
I truly hope you aren't dependent on a waiver wire add at running back this week. But if you are, Moss is likely the best option. He saw 24 carries in Week 15 and faces a Chargers defense that ranks dead last against the run. Still, there's a very low floor here as both Deon Jackson and Jordan Wilkins could possibly eat into Moss's role, or even lead the team in rushing.
If not for an awful matchup against the Ravens, Allgeier would be my favorite running back to add this week. He's played right around half the snaps in four of his past five games and has been very efficient with the touches he's received, averaging five yards per carry and catching 100% of the passes thrown his way. But the Ravens run defense is a juggernaut, so proceed with caution.
CAR Carolina • #30
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Hubbard has been the better Panthers back each of the past two weeks, but surprisingly the Lions present a difficult challenge. They haven't allowed a running back to score double-digit PPR Fantasy points since Week 7. If one of the Panthers backs is going to break that streak, we'd bet on Hubbard.
Jordan Mason RB
SF San Francisco • #24
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Mason is the clear No. 2 behind Christian McCaffrey with Elijah Mitchell out of the picture. We all know McCaffrey's injury history, and Mason now appears to be just one injury away from 15-plus touches per game in an offense that has been even more RB-centric with Brock Purdy at quarterback.
SF San Francisco • #23
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.
If you can find enough value to squeeze in Christian Mccaffrey and Derrick Henry, that would be awesome. But odds are you're going to have to make a choice and I lean ever so slightly to McCaffrey because of his role in this passing game and enormous role since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback.
Kamara has not been particularly good lately and this game is threatening to set a record for the lowest over/under in history, but he might also get 30 touches in terrible weather against an awful run defense. If you wanted to face McCaffrey and Henry for a guy below five percent roster rate, Kamara is the choice.