This summer saw new long-term contracts for Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jordan Love. All three are now locked in for at least the next three seasons and that matters in Dynasty, especially in Superflex leagues. The truth is that floor doesn't matter nearly as much in a one-quarterback league, but once you get past the truly elite quarterbacks it gets much more important in Superflex leagues.
Giving three quarterbacks a boost because of their contracts isn't controversial at all. The order I have them ranked below may be. While I put the three in the same tier Brock Purdy and don't have a strong preference between the four, I do have Tagovailoa at the top of the list. He ranks fourth in the group, and well behind Love, in consensus rankings. So there's either a great opportunity for profit here or I'm completely off in my evaluation. I'll make my case for the Dolphins' franchise quarterback and I'll let you decide if you want to go get him at a discount.
The first thing Tagovailoa has going for him is that he isn't the only Dolphin locked up for the long term. He'll have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle there with him. That gives him arguably the best receiving duo in the league for at least the next three seasons. Less certain is the long-term future of Mike McDaniel, but our best projection is that he has at least two more years with one of the best offensive minds in the game.
Of course, he's had all these advantages the past two seasons, and so we should at least consider what Tagovailoa has done and what that might point towards. Last year he led the NFL in passing yards but only averaged 19.3 Fantasy points per game, which was three FPPG worse than Love and Purdy. The year before he led the NFL in touchdown rate, yards per pass attempt, and passer rating, and averaged 21.6 FPPG despite dealing with concussion issues and leaving multiple games early.
The difference between those two years is mostly pass rate and touchdown rate. The Dolphins ran the ball more in 2023 and scored a higher percentage of their touchdowns on the ground. I don't expect the defense to be as good this year, and I don't expect they'll have as many blowout wins. If they don't, Tagovailoa's pass attempts will increase, the touchdown rate will bounce back, and he'll produce enough passing stats to make up for the fact that he doesn't run as much as Love or Purdy. The fact that he was able to lead the NFL in passing on 560 attempts shows just how much upside he has if the Dolphins throw more often.
Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins quarterback has averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt, produced a 5.6% TD rate, and posted a 102.9 passer rating. Those are elite numbers, really matched only by Purdy. The difference is that Tagovailoa gets to throw a lot more than Purdy. Over the next three years, I would bet at least once Tagovailoa produces elite Fantasy production. We've seen glimpses of that type of upside each of the past two seasons. He averaged 26.1 FPPG from Week 8-13 in 2022 and 24.8 from Week 1-6 in 2023. Don't be surprised if he does that over a full season at least once. Even if you expect Tagovailoa to produce similarly to the other three quarterbacks, he's the cheapest and a great buy today.
Here are my updated Dynasty QB rankings:
