You have to be careful when you're playing the ADP game in Fantasy Football drafts. Trying to simply draft the best "values" based on Average Draft Position might just leave you with a sixth-place roster, because you need to take some risks and get away from the consensus to really find upside in your drafts.
However, there is value in knowing your draft room, so before you draft, log into the room and check things out. See what the room defaults to -- ADP? Your chosen provider's in-house projections? Default rankings? -- and familiarize yourself with how that differs from your rankings. You can know which players you might be able to wait on, or which positions you might need to target earlier based on how drafts tend to go in that room.
I'll help you out. I compared ADP data from the ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS Fantasy, to find the biggest outliers in each site's default rankings. Here are the best values at each site -- the players going later in drafts, relative to the other sites -- based on ADP so far:
The best values in CBS Fantasy drafts
First, here's a table with the 15-cheapest non-kickers/DSTs in CBS Fantasy leagues, compared to Yahoo and ESPN Fantasy:
Rondale Moore, WR, Cardinals (unranked in CBS ADP)
Moore tends to be viewed as a pretty fringe-y option these days, and his usage in the preseason suggests he may not see much of the field outside of three-WR sets, which isn't ideal. On the other hand, Moore did have a solid 20% target per route run rate – not an elite mark, but right around the same rate as guys like Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, and JuJu Smith-Schuster and good for 63rd percentile among players with at least 250 routes. My enthusiasm on Moore has waned in recent weeks, but I still like him as a late-round PPR target, and that's pretty easy in CBS leagues.
Luke Musgraves, TE, Packers (unranked)
The hype hasn't caught up yet, but it will. Rookie tight ends are historically pretty bad bets for Fantasy, but this year's class is looking to change that. Sam LaPorta is the 173rd-ranked player in CBS Fantasy ADP, while Dalton Kincaid is already a top-100 prospect, so if you want the cheaper version, Musgrave seems locked into a significant role in Green Bay's offense. Musgrave is a plus athlete who looked like he was going to have a breakout season in 2022 with 11 catches for 169 yards in two games before a season-ending knee injury. I wouldn't make Musgrave the only tight end I draft, but he's absolutely on my radar if I'm looking for two cheap upside shots.
Treylon Burks, WR, Titans (151)
Burks is going 101st in ESPN leagues and 121st in Yahoo, so there's a nice discount going on here. And it makes sense, since Burks is questionable for the start of the season with a knee sprain suffered in a recent practice. Burks was a popular breakout pick before the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, but I still think there's value in betting on a player with Burks' talent level, even in a low-volume passing offense – in 2020, Corey Davis was on a 1,245-yard pace in 12 games with A.J. Brown active, while Brown was on pace for 1,325 yards in those 12 games. That doesn't mean Hopkins and Burks will be similarly productive, but it is to say that Ryan Tannehill has supported multiple Fantasy-relevant pass-catchers in this offense pretty recently.
I'm not surprised Godwin ranks this low, given how skeptical my CBS Fantasy colleagues are about him this season, though it's worth noting that even while Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings are low on Godwin, they all have him as a top-70 player in their rankings. As I wrote about in the Fantasy Football Today Newsletter earlier this week, I'm worried about making the mistake with the Buccaneers that I did with the Seahawks last year, where I just assumed they were going to be a disastrous offense – a mistake that burned me when the Seahawks ended up being competent. I don't expect Baker Mayfield to play as well as Geno Smith did last season, but if he's even the 20th-best QB in the NFL, Godwin (and Mike Evans) is likely to smash this price.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers (100)
The Steelers are another team I'm trying not to make the Seahawks mistake with. I'm not much of a believer in Kenny Pickett, but reports out of camp have been promising enough that I can see a path to competence, and that's probably all Johnson needs. He's actually going off the board around two rounds after George Pickens in CBS leagues, which I just can't justify – maybe Pickens takes a big step forward and starts competing for a higher target share, but let's not forget, Johnson had 63 more targets than Pickens did a year ago. That ability to earn targets at a high rate is simply too valuable to fade, even if Johnson was a disappointment last season. I'll take the discount.
The best values in ESPN drafts
First, here's a table with the 15-cheapest non-kickers/DSTs in ESPN leagues, compared to Yahoo and CBS Fantasy:
And here are five players I'd be targeting at ESPN:
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens (214th)
None of the Ravens wide receivers are particularly high-value targets for me, with Bateman, Odell Beckham, and Zay Flowers all coming in outside of my top 50 at the WR position. There's certainly talent here, but no real sense of the hierarchy, in what I still expect to be a pretty low-volume offense. So, if I'm going to draft any of them, it'll be as a late-rounder flier with upside, and Bateman is cheaper at ESPN than any of the other options. Zay Flowers is about three rounds cheaper in Yahoo leagues than in either ESPN or CBS (152 overall), by the way. Odell Beckham's cost is pretty much the same in every format, right around the 10th round, so I probably just won't draft him, sadly.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Eagles (130)
Training camp and preseason usage trends have suggested that Penny is potentially the third running back for the Eagles, and I've dropped him to 46th in my RB rankings as a result. But I still think there's a chance he emerges as the best runner in the Eagles backfield, and potentially their go-to goal-line back, ala Miles Sanders last year. I'm less confident in it than before, but I'll still take him in the 10th or 11th round every time if he's there.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens (83)
Dobbins is a top-50 player at both CBS and Yahoo, so this is clearly the best spot to draft him. He seems healthy after opening camp on the PUP list, and I'm hopeful that, with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken running the show, the Ravens will be more willing to use Dobbins as a true lead back, rather than as part of a committee. If they do, he could have a Nick Chubb-esque breakout as a high-volume, efficient, big-play runner in a good offense. When he comes this cheap, it's easy to make the bet.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Chiefs (153)
I was pretty skeptical about the Toney breakout hype coming into camp, but the knee injury he suffered on the first day has done a lot to suppress his price, which makes it easier to stomach. He's a long shot bet to be much more than a gadget player in this offense, given his inability to stay healthy. But he might also be the team's best playmaker other than Travis Kelce, and if he gets and stays healthy, there's more than enough upside here to justify a late-round flier, even if he isn't healthy for Week 1.
I've got Montgomery as my RB22, so I'm a decent amount higher on him than the consensus right now. That's especially true at ESPN, where he's behind the likes of Dalvin Cook, Isiah Pacheco, and Cam Akers at RB and players like Pat Freiermuth, Mike Williams, and Christian Kirk at other positions. Montgomery is splitting a backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, who should go ahead of him, to be sure. But it's a backfield that produced the most Fantasy points in PPR (and the 10th-most targets) for running backs of any team last season. Even baking in some regression, there is room for both Montgomery and Gibbs to be No. 2 RBs, and that's how I've got it ranked right now.
The best values in Yahoo drafts
First, here's a table with the 15-cheapest non-kickers/DSTs in Yahoo leagues, compared to ESPN and CBS Fantasy:
And here are five players I'd be targeting at Yahoo:
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders (205)
Meyers isn't a player I'm particularly interested in adding, because I just don't think there's much room for more than, say, a 20% target share in Las Vegas. But if he did that, it would have been good for 118 targets last year, and that would probably make Meyers a solid WR3 in PPR scoring. There isn't a huge ceiling here, but if you've taken a lot of riskier fliers, like Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, and some rookie wide receivers earlier, Meyers could be a very valuable piece to have around in the later rounds.
Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos (193)
I think a healthy skepticism toward the Broncos offense is called for, but it's also not hard to see how he could enjoy a bounceback season with Sean Payton. Reports out of Broncos camp haven't been uniformly glowing, but they also haven't been so negative that I'm scared off. Wilson probably isn't going to turn back into an elite Fantasy option who rushes for 500 yards again, but Payton's offense and the talent around him could lead to a top-12 QB finish at what is a drastically reduced cost in Yahoo leagues. He wouldn't be my only QB, but I like the idea of pairing him with a high-variance player like Anthony Richardson.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers (173)
There are some concerns about whether Johnston is going to be useful for Fantasy early on this season – The Athletic's Daniel Popper said on Wednesday that Johnston might be fourth on the depth chart behind Joshua Palmer, as well as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Johnston has, apparently, struggled with consistency and drops in camp, which isn't totally surprising. The thing to keep in mind is, that you're not just drafting for Week 1, so even if Johnston isn't particularly useful right away, there's still clearly long-term upside. It might take an injury, it might just take some patience, but Johnston is a high-upside WR in a high-octane offense who could be a huge difference maker at this price.
Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs (158)
This one just feels like a mistake, but one you'll want to take advantage of if it continues over the next few weeks. Moore is a top-36 WR and a top-75 pick for me at this point. Yes, the Chiefs will spread the ball around, and yes, Travis Kelce is still the top option in this passing game until further notice. But even a 19% target share in this offense – a relatively low number, all things considered – could lead to a significant, valuable role for Fantasy, because that would have been 124 targets last season. Moore has clearly established himself as one of the team's starting wide receivers in camp, and while the default rankings suggest you might be able to wait in Yahoo leagues, I'd be thrilled to get him even around 100th overall.
Christian Watson, WR, Packers (77)
I'm not totally bought in on Watson, whose rookie year comps show a wide range of possible outcomes. But he's a top-60 player for me, even though I'm somewhat lower on him than the consensus. That makes him a clear buy at this kind of price. If I can get Watson in the fifth round, I'm happy; if I can get him in the sixth, I'm thrilled. That might actually be possible on Yahoo.