The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2023 season as one of those offenses that Fantasy Football managers across the landscape believe will break out. If this is truly the break-out offense of 2023, you're going to want to roster multiple players from it. So why are people so excited? For starters, Trevor Lawrence is one of the best prospects at the quarterback position we've seen enter the NFL in the last decade, and he took a massive step forward in 2022. He also has Doug Pederson, a proven coach with a track record of developing quarterbacks and maximizing offenses. Plus Jacksonville added Calvin Ridley to be its No. 1 wide receiver and drafted Tank Bigsby to bring physicality to the run game, adding juice to an already exciting supporting cast. Now you have the makings of the hyped offense for 2023.
Below the CBS Sports Fantasy staff will take a look into the Jaguars' entire team outlook including a burning question for Fantasy Football managers that needs to be answered, key player projections, a review of their draft class, strength of schedule, and individual player outlooks for all of the notable Jaguars players who may end up on your Fantasy rosters.
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Jaguars 2023 team outlook
By Chris Towers
The Jaguars made the leap from 3-14 to the second round of the playoffs, with both their offense and defense ranking in the top 12. The key now will be to avoid taking a step back, and Trevor Lawrence's continued development will once again be the key there.
Burning question: What does the next step look like for Lawrence?
Lawrence took a big step forward last season, but he didn't quite play like a superstar -- 13 of his 25 passing touchdowns came in one five-game stretch from Week 10 through 15, for example. He'll be adding Calvin Ridley to what was already a pretty solid receiving group, though we haven't seen Ridley play at a high level since 2020, so it's fair to wonder how much of an impact he can make. Lawrence is going to be drafted as a difference maker at QB, and I'm just not sure he's there yet.
Jaguars player projections
|QB||Trevor Lawrence||PA: 587, YD: 4228, TD: 26, INT: 15; RUSH -- ATT: 67, YD: 302, TD: 4|
|RB||Travis Etienne||CAR: 269, YD: 1208, TD: 10; TAR: 47, REC: 35, YD: 282, TD: 1|
|RB||Tank Bigsby||CAR: 112, YD: 448, TD: 4; TAR: 24, REC: 18, YD: 132, TD: 1|
|WR||Calvin Ridley||TAR: 141, REC: 94, YD: 1133, TD: 7|
|WR||Christian Kirk||TAR: 117, REC: 74, YD: 928, TD: 5|
|WR||Zay Jones||TAR: 106, REC: 73, YD: 770, TD: 5|
|TE||Evan Engram||TAR: 100, REC: 70, YD: 720, TD: 4|
2023 NFL Draft class
1. (27) Anton Harrison, OL
2. (61) Brenton Strange, TE
3. (88) Tank Bigsby, RB
4. (121) Ventrell Miller, LB
4. (130) Tyler Lacy, DE
5. (136) Yasir Abdullah, LB
5. (160) Antonio Johnson, DB
6. (185) Parker Washington, WR
6. (202) Christian Braswell, DB
6. (208) Erick Hallett, DB
7. (226) Cooper Hodges, OL
7. (227) Raymond Vohasek, DT
7. (240) Derek Parish, DL
Projected Strength of Schedule rankings by Dave Richard
- QB PSoS: 18th easiest
- RB PSoS: 21st easiest
- WR PSoS: 17th easiest
- TE PSoS: 19th easiest
|1||Sep 10, 2023||@Indianapolis||1:00 pm||FOX||Lucas Oil Stadium|
|2||Sep 17, 2023||vsKansas City||1:00 pm||TIAA Bank Field|
|3||Sep 24, 2023||vsHouston||1:00 pm||FOX||TIAA Bank Field|
|4||Oct 1, 2023||vsAtlanta||9:30 am||ESP+||Wembley Stadium|
|5||Oct 8, 2023||@Buffalo||9:30 am||NFLN||Tottenham Hotspur Stadium|
|6||Oct 15, 2023||vsIndianapolis||1:00 pm||TIAA Bank Field|
|7||Oct 19, 2023||@New Orleans||8:15 pm||AMZN||Caesars Superdome|
|8||Oct 29, 2023||@Pittsburgh||1:00 pm||Acrisure Stadium|
|10||Nov 12, 2023||vsSan Francisco||1:00 pm||FOX||TIAA Bank Field|
|11||Nov 19, 2023||vsTennessee||1:00 pm||TIAA Bank Field|
|12||Nov 26, 2023||@Houston||1:00 pm||NRG Stadium|
|13||Dec 4, 2023||vsCincinnati||8:15 pm||ESPN||TIAA Bank Field|
|14||Dec 10, 2023||@Cleveland||1:00 pm||Cleveland Browns Stadium|
|15||Dec 17, 2023||vsBaltimore||8:20 pm||NBC||TIAA Bank Field|
|16||Dec 24, 2023||@Tampa Bay||4:05 pm||Raymond James Stadium|
|17||Dec 31, 2023||vsCarolina||1:00 pm||TIAA Bank Field|
|18||Jan 7, 2024||@Tennessee||TBA||—||Nissan Stadium|
Jaguars 2023 player outlooks
By Dan Schneier unless otherwise noted
QB Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence will enter the 2023 draft cycle as one of the most popular breakout picks at quarterback, and there's a lot to like about his projection.
Lawrence made massive strides across the board in key metrics like touchdown rate, yards per attempt and completion percentage. He also started to convert his athleticism into points with five touchdowns on the ground. His 2023 supporting cast only gets better with the addition of Calvin Ridley. With his price likely to inflate as draft season unfolds, it's important to note Lawrence finished as a QB1 in just six games in 2022 and he had three weekly finishes outside the top 24.
If you want to swing for Lawrence's upside, you'll probably have to grab him in Round 5.
RB Travis Etienne
Etienne ascended into a consistent Fantasy producer in Year 2 after a slow first six weeks. Etienne had four top-seven weekly finishes in PPR and he was the eighth-best running back from Weeks 7-17 in non-PPR.
Consistency wasn't Etienne's forte, however, and he finished outside the top 24 eight times. Etienne's Fantasy stock has risen heading into 2023 with the expectation that he'll score more in an offense that is one of the most likely to break out, but there are two major red flags in his profile. He had the fifth-most carries (23) inside the 10-yard line but he only scored on four of them in 2022. Rookie RB Tank Bigsby is built to be a better red-zone back and could take that role over immediately. Also, although billed as a receiving threat, Etienne wasn't involved much in the passing game in 2022 and his target share could slip more with Calvin Ridley added to the mix.
If you buy the Jaguars offense breaking out and want a main piece, target Etienne early in Round 3.
RB Tank Bigsby
Bigsby earned playing time immediately as a true freshman and found early success as a running back, receiver and return man, including racking up 268 all-purpose yards against Arkansas. He continued to find success both in the box score and the underlying metrics (sixth-best in yards after contact, 11th-best in forced missed tackles, seventh-best in breakaway run percentage in 2022, per PFF). Where Bigsby can immediately help the Jaguars is in the red zone, an area where Etienne struggled last season.
If he can earn the red-zone role early, Bigsby is a great RB to prioritize drafting in the final rounds of your draft. In rookie-only formats, Bigsby is worth considering late in Round 2.
WR Calvin Ridley
Ridley is one of the best examples of why you shouldn't use the 40-yard dash time to determine a player's ability to win as a deep threat. When we last saw Ridley in 2021, he earned the fourth-highest air-yard target share (40%). And this is exactly why you should be excited about Ridley's Fantasy profile in Jacksonville.
Lawrence desperately needed a WR who can beat press man coverage on the vertical plane, and Ridley is exactly that. In 2021, Ridley was also an elite separator at all levels and that earned him a top-seven target share. With more target competition in Jacksonville than he had in 2021 in Atlanta, we can't expect the same kind of target share, but with ascending quarterback play, he is a high-upside WR2 target with a solid floor.
Look to target drafting Ridley in Round 4.
WR Christian Kirk
Kirk lived up to his contract in Year 1, and he did so by winning at all three levels of the field en route to the most Fantasy points per game of his career across all scoring formats. Kirk did most of his damage in the slot and is likely to play that primary role again in 2023. Now Kirk will have to also compete with Ridley and the returning Evan Engram for targets. Kirk finished as a WR1 four times in 2022, so the ceiling is still there, but he is more of a WR2/3 target in 2023 drafts. Look to target him in Round 6.
WR Zay Jones
Jones wasn't the highest profile acquisition the Jaguars made last offseason, but he immediately developed a rapport with Lawrence that led to 121 targets, good for 18th-most in the NFL in 2022.
With Ridley added to the mix, you can expect Jones' targets to tumble in 2023, but how fast Ridley can establish himself in the red zone might be the key to Jones' continued success. Last season, Jones drew the 12th-most red zone targets in the NFL. If Ridley eats into that share as well, Jones will settle into more of the WR5 range.
Look for Jones starting in Round 12.
WR Parker Washington
If you don't look closely enough, you might mistake Washington's game film at Penn State for Jahan Dotson and several receivers before him who came through that program and found success in the slot. Washington is not the athlete Dotson is, but he has a knack for beating zone coverage and is a nuanced route-runner. This could give him some upside long-term in PPR leagues if he can work his way up a crowded Jaguars depth chart. In rookie-only formats, Washington can be selected in Round 4.
TE Evan Engram
Engram had a career resurgence in his first year with one of the NFL's tight end whisperers in Doug Pederson after getting away from Jason Garrett's system that miscast him as a tight end who should be running stick routes. Engram finished as a TE1 in six games in 2022 and the TE7 in points per game in PPR. Consistency wasn't there for Engram and he had eight games where he finished outside the top 24 at tight end. That could become a bigger issue in 2023 with Calvin Ridley in the mix. Look to draft Engram in Round 7 of your Fantasy drafts.
TE Brenton Strange
Strange was one of the most surprising picks of the 2023 NFL Draft considering where he typically landed in mock drafts, but he carries with him big-time prospect pedigree and he now joins an excellent system for developing tight ends (see: Evan Engram in 2022). Strange is unlikely to make a Fantasy impact in 2023 unless Engram misses time with injuries, but if he does, Strange could be a hot waiver wire commodity.
Patterson averaged the 14th-most Fantasy points per game in 2022 and has an opportunity to jump into the K1 mix in 2023 if the combination of Calvin Ridley and Trevor Lawrence's progression leads to an even higher scoring offense in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars DST surprised in 2022 by scoring the eighth-most Fantasy points per game and their production wasn't even fueled by edge rusher and No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker. The Jaguars return all key pieces to their defense with a few new faces to add depth. They also have one of the easiest schedules with six games against their fellow AFC South teams. With a Week 1 showdown against the Colts, the Jaguars are worth targeting as your DST to start the season.