As of this writing, Deshaun Watson is still on the Texans roster. However, between his ongoing trade demands and the legal situation surrounding the accusations of sexual misconduct against him keeping him away from the team, it looks increasingly unlikely he'll be the QB for the Texans in 2021 -- or any other team for that matter. Until we know how that situation is resolved, nothing else here really matters.
2020 Review
Record: 4 - 12 (29)
PPG: 24.0 (18)
YPG: 375.3 (13)
Pass YPG: 283.6 (4)
Rush YPG: 91.6 (31)
PAPG: 34.1 (23)
RAPG: 21.5 (31)
2020 Fantasy finishes
QB: Deshaun Watson QB4
RB: David Johnson RB21, Duke Johnson* RB55
WR: Brandin Cooks WR17, Will Fuller* WR32, Randall Cobb WR75, Keke Coutee WR86
TE: Jordan Akins TE25, Darren Fells* TE32
*No longer with team
Number to know: 78.4%
That was Watson's on-target throw rate in 2020, the eighth-highest in the NFL. That's even more impressive than it sounds because Watson's 9.4 yard average depth of target was the second-highest among passers with at least 200 attempts. Watson was routinely making difficult throws at a high rate, elevating everyone around him in the process. The last time we saw Tyrod Taylor play extensively was in 2017, when he ranked 18th with a 72.9% on-target throw rate while also ranking 18th in average depth of target at 8.9 yards. Taylor is not without his skills as a player, especially as a rusher, but he's not Watson. This offense could be very bad without Watson.
2021 Offseason
Draft Picks
3. (67) Davis Mills, QB
3. (89) Nico Collins, WR
5. (147) Brevin Jordan, TE
5. (170) Garret Wallow, LB
6. (195) Roy Lopez, DL
Additions
QB Tyrod Taylor, C Justin Britt, WR Donte Moncrief, CB Vernon Hargreaves, LB Christian Kirksey, RB Mark Ingram, RB Phillip Lindsay, Shaq Lawson, QB Jeff Driskel
Key Departures
WR Will Fuller, DL J.J. Watt, Duke Johnson
Available Opportunity
93 carries, 41 RB targets, 104 WR targets, 44 TE targets
Team Outlooks: Packers | Cowboys | Bears | Broncos | Lions
2021 Preview
| Award |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 13 | 14 | 13 | 18 |
| David Johnson | 35 | 35 | 32 | 29 |
| Phillip Lindsay | NR | 57 | 59 | 58 |
| Brandin Cooks | 36 | 34 | 27 | 34 |
Chris Towers' projections*
With Watson
| QB | Deshaun Watson | PA: 525, YD: 4202, TD: 31, INT: 14; RUSH -- ATT: 98, YD: 537, TD: 5 |
| RB | David Johnson | CAR: 196, YD: 781, TD: 5; TAR: 52, REC: 37, YD: 331, TD: 3 |
| RB | Phillip Lindsay | CAR: 106, YD: 500, TD: 4; TAR: 27, REC: 20, YD: 183, TD: 1 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | TAR: 114, REC: 75, YD: 1051, TD: 7 |
| WR | Randall Cobb | TAR: 74, REC: 50, YD: 601, TD: 4 |
| WR | Keke Coutee | TAR: 64, REC: 40, YD: 514, TD: 4 |
| WR | Nico Collins | TAR: 64, REC: 41, YD: 514, TD: 4 |
| TE | Jordan Akins | TAR: 52, REC: 35, YD: 420, TD: 3 |
With Tyrod Taylor
| QB | Tyrod Taylor | PA: 531, YD: 3770, TD: 22, INT: 14; RUSH -- ATT: 102, YD: 564, TD: 4 |
| RB | David Johnson | CAR: 188, YD: 751, TD: 5; TAR: 53, REC: 37, YD: 335, TD: 2 |
| RB | Phillip Lindsay | CAR: 102, YD: 450, TD: 3; TAR: 16, REC: 12, YD: 111, TD: 1 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | TAR: 122, REC: 74, YD: 969, TD: 6 |
| WR | Randall Cobb | TAR: 80, REC: 49, YD: 543, TD: 3 |
| WR | Keke Coutee | TAR: 68, REC: 41, YD: 497, TD: 3 |
| WR | Nico Collins | TAR: 70, REC: 40, YD: 489, TD: 3 |
| TE | Jordan Akins | TAR: 53, REC: 35, YD: 386, TD: 2 |
Biggest Question
A point of clarification: Obviously, Watson's status is going to be a significant factor in what the Texans offense looks like, and it's really the only question that ultimately matters. Unfortunately, we have know way of knowing how it will be resolved, though I tend to assume Watson won't play for the Texans this season at this point. With that out of the way, here's another important question:
What will Houston's offense look like?
Even if Watson is back for Houston in 2021, this team has very little promise, between an old, crowded backfield and an almost wholly unproven receiving corps. Brandin Cooks could be one of the best values in drafts as the No. 1 option, but that's about all I can recommend at this point.
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One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
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If Taylor does end up starting for the Texans, he'll be an interesting streamer option, especially with the Texans opening up against the Jaguars, Browns, and Panthers in the first three weeks of the season. Taylor is never going to be a must-start guy, but his rushing ability gives him a nice weekly floor, and while the Texans don't have much talent around him, Brandin Cooks is at least better than anyone Taylor played with in Buffalo. He'll be a sneaky-good late-round pick in two-QB or SuperFlex leagues.
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There's no good option here, especially if Watson isn't playing, but Cooks is the only guy here with true star potential. Sure, he's already played at that level -- including in 2020, when he was on a 100-catch, near-1,500-yard, nine-touchdown pace from Week 5 on. If Watson does manage to play, Cooks could actually sneak into the WR1 discussion.
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I'm not sure how you can justify drafting Watson at this point. The Texans are talking as if they don't expect him to play, and there doesn't seem to have been any progress on a potential trade, probably because Watson is most likely facing discipline from the league as part of the allegations of sexual harassment against him. Maybe he ends up with a four-game suspension and that's all he misses, but given how many good late-round QB options there are, why force the issue?
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
