I never know what to do here with players like Alex Kirilloff and Jarred Kelenic.
They technically aren't prospects anymore, having gotten too many at-bats in the majors to qualify as such, but they are still minor-leaguers trying to earn their way back to the big club. As it relates to stashables for redraft leagues, the distinction is insignificant.
Of course, falling into that same category is Jo Adell, who I've featured in my Five on the Verge in recent weeks, so for consistency purposes, I should probably be willing to do the same with Kirilloff and Kelenic. But I won't, at least not for this week, though I reserve the right to change my mind next week. In the words of Dr. Venkman, it's more of a guideline than a rule.
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Bottom line is Alex Kirilloff deserves to be rostered again. Maybe not as much as Nos. 1 and 2 of my most stashable prospects, Vinnie Pasquantino and Riley Greene, but more than any other prospect or minor-leaguer or whatever. He's proven he's still capable of generating power with his surgically repaired wrist. There were a bunch of singles in the first days after the Twins sent him down, but all of a sudden, he's hit five home runs in a 10-game span. It has Triple-A numbers looking like this:
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Almost as notable as the home runs is the .445 on-base percentage. Kirilloff has never been one to take a walk, even at his best, so it's a welcome development for a player whose hit and power tools both rate as plus to plus-plus. There's been some chatter suggesting the pain in his wrist hasn't fully subsided, but if it's no longer impeding him at the plate, it's no longer a justification to ignore him in Fantasy. Surely, the Twins, who are currently leading the AL Central, will be looking to get him back in the lineup sooner than later.
My enthusiasm for Kelenic isn't as high, but I will point out that he's also performing well at Triple-A:
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In fact, he's currently riding a 13-game hitting streak in which he's batting .357 (20 for 56) with five home runs. I'd feel better about it if his plate discipline wasn't so pitiful, but with Mitch Haniger (ankle) out for several more weeks and Kyle Lewis (concussion) recently joining him on the IL, Kelenic would nonetheless join Kirilloff in my Five on the Verge, ranking right behind him in terms of priority.
Five on the verge
(These are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals
2021 minors: .300 BA (437 AB), 24 HR, 37 2B, .957 OPS, 64 BB, 64 K
2022 minors: .282 BA (188 AB), 16 HR, 14 2B, 1.005 OPS, 27 BB, 32 K
A 2-for-20 spell to begin the month of June has given the Royals the tiniest excuse to sit tight with Pasquantino, but he may have gotten back on track with his 16th homer Wednesday. With the worst record in baseball, they clearly aren't feeling much urgency to make a move, and it doesn't help that Carlos Santana, the proverbial deadweight, reached base five times Wednesday. Still, something's gotta give here, and sooner than later -- before the end of the month, I'd venture to say, barring injury. The 24-year-old is too polished as a hitter to continue biding his time at Triple-A, and because he profiles as primarily a DH, there isn't much work to be done on defense either.
Riley Greene, OF, Tigers
2021 minors: .301 BA (485 AB), 24 HR, 16 SB, .921 OPS, 63 BB, 153 K
2022 minors: .278 BA (36 AB), 1 HR, 2 SB, .755 OPS, 5 BB, 7 K
We're in the same place with Greene that we were with Adley Rutschman in the weeks leading up to his promotion. Seeing as Greene was on track to make the opening day roster prior to fracturing his foot late in spring training, the wait is mostly a matter of ensuring he's in midseason form -- i.e., seeing the ball well and feeling confident in his swing. It does him no favors to have him stand in against major-league pitching for the first time when he's ice cold.
Of course, his performance right now would suggest he's not ice cold. He's hit safely in five of seven games since joining Triple-A Toledo. With the Tigers out of the race, though, they'll probably give him another week or two for good measure. A little patience will serve you well here.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates
2021 minors: .310 BA (271 AB), 17 HR, 19 SB, .969 OPS, 28 BB, 69 K
2022 minors: .225 BA (178 AB), 8 HR, 11 SB, .750 OPS, 27 BB, 52 K
Cruz was out of the lineup for Triple-A Indianapolis Wednesday, fueling speculation that he may finally be getting the call. I'd bet against it for a number of reasons. He's played only four games since coming back from an ankle injury, his overall stat line is still underwhelming, and the Pirates have no real incentive to call him up. You've heard it all before. I will acknowledge, though, that he's on the right trajectory after a miserable start to the season, batting .333 (15 for 45) with five homers and two steals over his past 11 games. If he keeps it going for another couple weeks, he may force the team's hand.
Miguel Vargas, 3B, Dodgers
2021 minors: .319 BA (483 AB), 23 HR, 11 SB, .906 OPS, 45 BB, 89 K
2022 minors: .288 BA (212 AB), 8 HR, 6 SB, .867 OPS, 32 BB, 43 K
The Dodgers are prepared to activate Max Muncy this weekend and give his UCL-afflicted elbow another chance even though his Triple-A rehab assignment went as poorly as everything else he's tried this year (2 for 14 with six strikeouts). It likely means Vargas' debut is still on hold, though with Edwin Rios now sidelined by a hamstring tear, there's less cushion should Muncy continue to falter. Frankly, nothing is stopping the Dodgers from having Vargas play alongside Muncy, with the latter shifting to second base, but the point is that Muncy's return would be an odd time to bring in the 22-year-old. I wouldn't rule him out for all of June, though.
Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox
2021 minors: .258 BA (244 AB), 16 HR, 16 SB, .873 OPS, 30 BB, 66 K
2022 minors: .312 BA (157 AB), 4 HR, 11 SB, .919 OPS, 19 BB, 44 K
What has me back on the Duran hype train? The fact the Red Sox batted him leadoff during his two days as a paternity leave replacement for Jackie Bradley last week. It suggests they know he's an upgrade for their starting lineup, but they're not ready to commit to benching anyone for him yet. Between Bradley, Enrique Hernandez and Franchy Cordero, though, there are a number of worthy candidates. With the Red Sox fighting to get back in the playoff picture, they can't afford to twiddle their thumbs here.
After experimenting with a swing geared more for power last year, Duran is back to focusing on line drives. It limits his overall ceiling, but it could still make him a base-stealing, run-scoring force at the top of the lineup.
Five on the periphery
(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks
2021 minors: 8-7, 3.21 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 131 2/3 IP, 28 BB, 160 K
2022 minors: 3-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 53 2/3 IP, 11 BB, 71 K
Coming into the year, there was some debate as to whether Blake Walston, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson or Pfaadt was the Diamondbacks' best pitching prospect. After two months of play, Pfaadt is now the leader in the clubhouse. His ERA is skewed by pitching in such a hitter-friendly environment (Double-A El Paso), but lately, not even that has mattered. He has a 1.89 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 12.3 K/9 in his past three starts, including two at home. He also has a workhorse build, a well-developed arsenal good for a 16 percent swinging-strike rate, and a penchant for pounding the strike zone.
Gavin Williams, SP, Guardians
2022 minors: 2-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 45 IP, 14 BB, 67 K
If you want a pitcher who was on basically no top-100 lists coming into the season (apologies to Baseball Prospectus) but is now widely acknowledged as having ace potential, Williams is the guy. There were whispers back then about how big his fastball could play, but with only college data to back it up, it was hard to go all-in. Well, you see now how the professional data looks. Standing 6-feet-6, Williams is able to blow his high-90s fastball by hitters with ease and keeps them off balance with a wipeout curveball. The Guardians have kept his outings short for the most part, but he exceeded six innings in his latest, earning a promotion to Double-A.
Elly De La Cruz, 3B, Reds
2021 minors: .296 BA (247 AB), 8 HR, 10 SB, .874 OPS, 14 BB, 80 K
2022 minors: .301 BA (176 AB), 11 HR, 12 SB, .944 OPS, 10 BB, 58 K
De La Cruz is sort of the prospect du jour for people who favor tools over skills, which I guess is another way of saying he has a wide range of possible outcomes, which I guess is another way of calling him a boom-or-bust pick. So far this year, though, things have trended toward boom. Yes, it's only at High-A, and yes, it has come with a 31 percent strikeout rate, but his 70-grade power and speed are translating so far. He's even riding a 13-game hit streak, during which he's batting .375 (21 for 56) with five homers. If it turns out he can sustain it at the upper levels, we may be looking at another Oneil Cruz.
Gavin Stone, SP, Dodgers
2021 minors: 2-2, 3.76 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 91 IP, 25 BB, 138 K
2022 minors: 3-2, 0.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 47 IP, 9 BB, 65 K
How do the Dodgers keep finding these guys? Stone, who was little more than a fringe prospect coming into the year, has been arguably the most dominant pitcher in the minors so far, at least on a pure statistical level, and it hasn't slowed down with his recent move up to Double-A. In fact, he just delivered his best start of the season Tuesday, striking out 13 over six shutout innings. There are some Joe Ryan parallels here, namely the microscopic walk rate and low release point, which gives Stone's fastball more vertical movement. But Stone distinguishes himself by having more velocity, better secondaries and a penchant for ground balls.
Enmanuel Valdez, 2B, Astros
2021 minors: .255 BA (365 AB), 26 HR, .860 OPS, 38 BB, 89 K
2022 minors: .364 BA (176 AB), 13 HR, 1.143 OPS, 35 BB, 49 K
In deep Dynasty leagues where all bona-fide prospects are already rostered, everyone's on the lookout for the next Spencer Strider on the pitching side and the next Jose Miranda on the hitting side. Valdez looks like a candidate for the latter, putting up absolutely bonkers numbers between Double- and Triple-A. He's only 23, too, so he's not some retread Quadruple-A type. Like Miranda, he's been completely passed over on prospect lists because he doesn't profile anywhere defensively, having tried his hand at second base, third base and left field so far. At 5-feet-9, he's also outside the mold for a power hitter.
