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Before you close the book on 2022 and tune out for the offseason (which, by the way, you shouldn't, because I'll still be serving up content), I want to get you thinking about 2023 -- specifically, how the start of a draft might look.

As if assessing the players on their own merits wasn't difficult enough -- what with Ronald Acuna's sluggish recovery, Fernando Tatis' lengthy suspension, Bryce Harper's potential surgery and so on -- we've recently learned of another complicating factor. Rule changes are coming that could shake up the Fantasy Baseball landscape, namely by making stolen bases more prevalent.

How much more? Well, MLB executive Morgan Sword predicts a return to levels last seen in the early aughts, when there were roughly twice as many 20-steal guys as there are today. And I think the increase could be even bigger than that.

It's especially noteworthy when ranking players for 5x5 scoring, such as Rotisserie leagues, as is the case here. That's the format where stolen bases have come to dominate the early rounds, almost like a race to get them before they're all gone. I think it'll change, but it's risky to act on just a theory. I've devalued steals only slightly here, but I may even more in the months to come.

You may also notice that starting pitchers don't enter the discussion until the middle of Round 2, where a bunch are clumped together like I was too lazy to space them apart. Partly, it's because I think high-end hitters have become scarcer with the introduction of the deadened ball the past couple years. Partly, it's because my top-seven pitchers are so difficult to parse. You could talk me into ranking them in any order, probably, so using hitters to space them apart would be disingenuous, actually.

Round 1
1
Aaron Judge New York Yankees CF
He was already thought to be the best power hitter in the game, and the mushier baseballs have driven that point home, creating enough disparity to justify a pick this high. Durability would be the only other concern.
2
Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians 3B
Despite an uneven season, Ramirez remains the obvious standout at the position where you can least afford to wait. The new pickoff limit might even make him a 30/30 guy again.
3
Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers RF
Clearly, the deadened ball didn't suppress his power at all, because he just set a new career high in home runs. The lineup context alone justifies him going this high, but he'll also be incentivized to run more next year.
4
Trea Turner Los Angeles Dodgers SS
He won't be eligible at second base anymore and could be lured away from the Dodgers this offseason. With stolen bases likely to be more plentiful next year, I'd play it a little safe.
5
Julio Rodriguez Seattle Mariners CF
He's already producing 98th-percnetile max exit velocities at age 21, and he's clearly shown his willingness to run as the majors' only 25/25 guy so far. This ranking bakes in continued improvement, but the risk seems fairly low.
6
Ronald Acuna Atlanta Braves RF
His recovery from ACL surgery has clearly impacted his production and hasn't totally gone away, but at his age, a full recovery is to be expected. Picking him here is a little risky, but there's a reason he was considered the best 5x5 player prior to the injury.
7
Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros DH
He's the only player with batted-ball metrics to rival Judge's, and his strong finish is putting concerns about that nagging hand injury to rest. No rule change would make him a base-stealer, though.
8
Juan Soto San Diego Padres RF
Another exceedingly difficult player to rank, Soto has had a career that would stack up to anyone's through age 23 and was considered the best hitter in baseball at this time a year ago. There aren't obvious red flags to explain his struggles.
9
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels DH
Ohtani should be the No. 1 pick in leagues that allow daily lineup changes since you'd be getting all of his pitching stats, too. His confinement to DH limits his appeal in leagues where you're more likely to use him as a hitter, as does his modest batting average.
10
Kyle Tucker Houston Astros RF
Tucker might seem like a step down upside-wise, but he offers a chance at true five-category production, his strikeout rate suggesting last year's .294 batting average might be closer to legit than this year's mark.
11
Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox 3B
Don't let a bad August move you off of a 25-year-old with the capacity to contend for a batting title as well as hit 35 homers. The run at third base is coming, and you don't want to miss out.
12
Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers 1B
Even with the reduction in home runs, the perennial .300 hitter has been the third-best player in 5x5 leagues this year, his other stats bolstered by his ridiculous lineup context. Imagine if he rebounds power-wise.
Round 2
13
Fernando Tatis San Diego Padres SS
Where to draft Tatis will be a topic of hot debate over the next several months, what with his PED suspension keeping him out until early May. Complicating matters further is his recovery from shoulder surgery, but we all know he has No. 1 overall upside if everything breaks right.
14
Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels CF
Durability was already becoming an issue for Trout even before we learned about his chronic back issue. He's still plenty productive, but his escalating strikeout rate makes him no longer a clear standout in batting average.
15
Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies DH
He's played most of this year with ligament damage in his elbow, and the specter of Tommy John surgery looms. If he concedes to it, he'll likely be delayed for the start of 2023, and if he doesn't, we might just be waiting for the other shoe to drop.
16
Paul Goldschmidt St. Louis Cardinals 1B
This seems like discount enough for the No. 2 player this year. Nobody but me seems to want to rank him this high since he's 35 and outperforming his expected stats, but it's been a full year of that for a player with Hall of Fame credentials.
17
Austin Riley Atlanta Braves 3B
Power might be Riley's only standout attribute, but he certainly isn't lacking in it and at least won't hurt you in batting average. You might be tempted to go pitcher here, but once the quality third basemen are gone, they're gone.
18
Manny Machado San Diego Padres 3B
There's nothing wrong with Machado, per se, but he always seems to fall a little short of being a true stud. He's flirted with being a base-stealer before, and the new rules might be enough to get him all the way there, if you want to think optimistically.
19
Jacob deGrom New York Mets SP
Though he's only been active since August, it's safe to say deGrom has reaffirmed his standing as the best pitcher in baseball. You can't feel confident in him holding up over a full season anymore, but the upside will tempt someone into taking him here.
20
Vladimir Guerrero Toronto Blue Jays 1B
He's potentially a great value here seeing as he was the No. 1 player in 5x5 leagues last year, but Guerrero is back to putting the ball on the ground too much, undermining his tremendous bat-to-ball skills. He has a lower margin for error as a first baseman and non base-stealer.
21
Justin Verlander Houston Astros SP
You can't worry too much about Verlander turning 40 next year given all the other potential pitfalls starting pitchers face. As successful as his return from Tommy John has been, you can trust he's back to being as bankable of an ace as the game has ever known.
22
Max Scherzer New York Mets SP
I'm really leaning into the old guys at starting pitcher, aren't I? Well, they've proven they can take on the workload that makes for a true Fantasy ace, and when there's no letup in the performance, why not?
23
Shane McClanahan Tampa Bay Rays SP
We're seeing the durability come into question as the innings enter unfamiliar territory, which is always the concern for a young fireballer. Still, apart from deGrom, there may be no starting pitcher with a higher ceiling.
24
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers SP
Burnes was last year's McClanahan, which probably makes him the more trustworthy of the two. But he's looked a bit more human to close out this season and doesn't have McClanahan's superlative ground-ball skills.

A few leftovers (Round 3?)