j-t-realmuto.jpg

You know the catcher renaissance that I was going on about last year? Yeeeeah ... it didn't happen.

True, William Contreras reiterated his elite standing, and Yainer Diaz and Cal Raleigh further established their bona fides. But Logan O'Hoppe, Francisco Alvarez, Gabriel Moreno, Bo Naylor, Luis Campusano and Henry Davis didn't break through as hoped, with three of them more or less removing themselves from Fantasy consideration. Meanwhile, mainstays like Adley Rutschman, Will Smith and J.T. Realmuto all took a step back, putting their draft standing in a precarious spot. It's not a great situation.

So if the outlook at catcher has reversed from a year ago, when I advised you to wait at the position, am I advising you to pounce now? Not really.

I mean, you can if the value is right. The thinning out at catcher presents an opportunity to create some daylight between you and the opposition, which wasn't so true last year, and particularly in leagues with smaller lineups, like standard Head-to-Head, you need to find whatever daylight you can. But it's still a brutal position to play, leading to a high attrition rate and performance instability. And that's not even accounting for the playing-time concerns inherent to the position. Why do you think so much went wrong last year?

So what's my plan, then? Basically, last year served to remind me that the juice isn't worth the squeeze at catcher if the value isn't right. I may be a little more intentional about drafting it in those smaller-lineup leagues, like Head-to-Head, but that's really only true for these first two ...

The Studs

2025 ADP2024 PPG2024 BA2024 HR
323.20.28123
602.57.25019

That's right, we're down to two and only two catchers that I think are truly impactful. Others are useful, but these are the real difference-makers at the position. For Contreras, the assertion is obvious. He's been the top catcher two years in a row now and would have been No. 2 at every other infield spot in Head-to-Head point scoring last year. Normally, we think of the top catchers as being a standard deviation below the top players at every other position because of the playing-time limitations and lower offensive threshold overall, so the fact Contreras was able to hang with some of the best first and third basemen underscores just how productive he was and should continue to be. If he lasts into Round 4, I'm also certainly taking him.

Rutschman may be a harder sell because he was considerably worse than Contreras last season, but remember, he was the preferred Fantasy option going into the year, an all-time great catching prospect who had seemingly made good on that potential right away. And he was having his best year yet through June 27, batting .300 with 15 homers and an .830 OPS. It's just that that's when he took a foul tip off the hand, an injury that didn't cost him any time but effectively ended the season (funny how that works). I'll bet on the bounce-back for a player with his pedigree, and I feel like the discount is already built in.

Other Deserving Starters

2025 ADP2024 PPG2024 BA2024 HR
682.63.29916
862.68.22034
902.67.27127
1082.86.24820
1092.87.26315
1312.44.22429
140
2.06.24420
1462.46.26614
170
2.45.25819

This group comprises the bulk of the position, and by the end of it, we'll have met every need in a 12-team, one-catcher league. Of course, if you're familiar with my catcher tiers, you'll know that three separate ones are represented here, which is to say that not every deserving starter is of equal standing.

I'll just outright say that the two I don't want are O'Hoppe and Tyler Stephenson. O'Hoppe has fallen short of expectations so far and now has Travis d'Arnaud (re: not really a backup) backing him up. Stephenson is just straight-up boring, basically the model for the minimum acceptable starter in a one-catcher league. If I'm not liking any of the values at catcher and have resigned myself to wait until the end of the draft to take one, O'Hoppe and Stephenson are fine, whatever. But I might instead opt for one of the sleepers featured below. 

The best from these other deserving starters are Diaz, Raleigh and Salvador Perez -- with Diaz representing the position's best bet for batting average, Raleigh its best bet for home runs, and Perez its best bet for RBI -- but they're also the most expensive. To me, their upside doesn't compare to that of Contreras and Rutschman, so I'm less likely to pay the premium. I should specify that their upside doesn't compare to that of William Contreras, because there's another Contreras here, his brother Willson Contreras. If I don't take William, I might look to take Willson next, at the appropriate time. He actually had the higher OPS of the two in 2024 and profiles similarly via the Statcast data. It's just that he didn't have the same playing-time assurances that William did behind the plate. Now that Willson is moving to first base, though, he figures to stay healthier and come out of the lineup less, which should turn his main disadvantage into an advantage. It's not so far-fetched to think that the Contreras brothers could be Nos. 1 and 2 at this position this year.

Playing time has also become an issue for Will Smith, whose star has faded with Shohei Ohtani now taking up all of the DH at-bats. I'd argue that the drop is too steep for him, but that's an argument I'd rather reserve for J.T. Realmuto, whose current ADP would have you believe he's on his last legs at age 34. He was actually at his best, though, after coming back from meniscus surgery in July, batting .290 with seven homers and an .843 OPS in his final 42 games. He might represent the best bang for the buck at catcher.

The Sleepers

2025 ADP2024 PPG2024 BA2024 OPS
1662.00.237.710
2032.14.229.718
2091.70.193.636
2352.29.266.734
2562.48.226.732
271
0.81.252*.834*
272
2.39.276.858
304
2.39.265.799
3562.68.240*.775*

*minor-league stats

I'm not too disappointed if I have to gamble on one of these as my starter in a one-catcher league, and I'm kind of thrilled if I get one as my second catcher in a two-catcher league. As with the other deserving starters, though, not all of the sleepers are on equal footing. The higher-probability choices, I think, are Francisco Alvarez, Austin Wells, Sean Murphy, Gabriel Moreno and Ivan Herrera.

The high-floor play among them is Moreno, who stands out most for his defense, plate discipline and contact skills. It means he'll play a lot (barring a repeat of last year's injury woes) and get on base plenty, (possibly with the benefit of a good batting average), but he's lacking the sort of home run potential that would make him a high-impact Fantasy bat. The high-ceiling play is either Alvarez or Murphy. Alvarez has a top prospect pedigree, is still only 23, and has demonstrated the capacity for big power already, but it's not clear that he can contribute anything else. Murphy was on the verge of becoming a Fantasy stud when he was traded to the Braves two years ago, but a split role with Travis d'Arnaud and a string of injuries have brought him down to size. Still, the Braves showed their confidence in him this offseason by declining their option on d'Arnaud (who's now with the Angels), and with improved health, it's possible Murphy reclaims his former standing.

The truest of sleepers here might be Herrera, who's taking over for Willson Contreras behind the plate in St. Louis. He hit .301 with an .800 OPS in a part-time role last year and has some impressive underlying data.

The Base-Stealers

2025 ADP2024 SB2025 hopeAlso eligible
3295-10-----
146
210-15-----
271
58-12-----
284
85-10-----
356
65-10-----

When I talk about the base-stealers at catcher, understand that it's relative. We've seen some decent stolen base totals from Realmuto in the past and from Naylor in the minors. We've seen a nice pace, at least, from Herrera. But at this point, if any of those three cracks double digits, it's a win. Notably, not a single catcher did last year, so if you're honestly targeting one for his potential to impact the stolen base category, you might want to rethink your life choices.

The one with the best chance, though, is Realmuto. He has the longest track record of stealing bases, and his shortfall last year (only two, yikes) can be attributed to the meniscus injury that cost him the better part of two months midseason. He obviously didn't want to press the issue with a surgically repaired knee, but his sprint speed was still 79th percentile on the year, only slightly less than usual.