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Who should you take with your first-round pick?

It's the most contemplated decision in every draft, and it's one I'm determined to help you make.

Note that I haven't bothered to weigh the merits of taking a starting pitcher. In a points league specifically, I think there's justification for taking Sandy Alcantara in Round 1 because of the volume he provides, but others would argue Corbin Burnes is the better choice. And again, that's kind of a format-specific case anyway.

So let's just focus on the hitters you might consider taking in Round 1, examining the pros and cons to help you determine which one most suits you.

I've listed them in the order that most suits me, at least in standard 5x5 (i.e., Rotisserie) scoring.

NYY N.Y. Yankees • #99 • Age: 31
2022 Stats
AVG
.311
HR
62
RBI
131
R
133
SB
16
OPS
1.111

The Case For: Not only did Aaron Judge hit an AL record 62 home runs last year, but he also hit 16 more than anyone else. It was the biggest ever gap between Nos 1 and 2 in a season in which someone hit 60, which goes to show you how much of an outlier Judge is for power now that juiced ball is no longer evening the playing field. He was far and away the best player in every scoring format as a result, performing 50 percent better than No. 2 in standard 5x5 leagues.

The Case Against: Yeah, but ... regression! Surely, he won't hit 62 home runs again. What happens if he hits only ... uh, 50? Yeah, what then? Or stolen bases! You have to get those in Round 1, you know, and he had ... oh, 16 of his own. Frankly, I don't think either argument holds much water. Home runs are becoming scarcer and stolen bases more plentiful. Probably the biggest knock on Judge is that his hulking 6-foot-7 frame hasn't always held together over a full season.

CLE Cleveland • #11 • Age: 31
2022 Stats
AVG
.280
HR
29
RBI
126
R
111
SB
20
OPS
.869

The Case For: You won't find a more consistent first-rounder than Jose Ramirez, who always manages to deliver on power, speed and all manner of run production. It just so happens, too, that third base is the most critical position to fill early this year. Ramirez is the only surefire first-rounder there, but another four (Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley and Bobby Witt) fly off the board early in Round 2. They're certainly not making it back to you if you pass on Ramirez here, which means you'll either be reaching for Nolan Arenado or playing a dangerous game at a position with few fallback options

The Case Against: Ramirez has to sell out for fly balls to deliver the power numbers he does, and his batting average can sometimes suffer as a result, putting him more in the .260 range than the .280 range. Playing catch-up in that category can be difficult, and the expectation is that your first-round pick will provide a sturdy foundation in it. Ramirez did lose a little something in the second half last year, but it turns out he was playing through a thumb injury that has since been remedied.

ATL Atlanta • #13 • Age: 26
2021 Stats
AVG
.266
HR
15
RBI
50
R
71
SB
29
AB
467

The Case For: Ronald Acuna is probably the best bet for a 40/40 season in all of baseball. He came within three steals of doing it in his last full season, 2019, and was on a similar pace before tearing his ACL midway through 2021. He showed no disinclination to run coming back from surgery last year and has a clean bill of health this year. Plus, he plays outfield, a position that drops off a cliff mid-draft and doesn't offer many second-round choices either.

The Case Against: Yeah ... about that torn ACL. Acuna made it back late last April but struggled to manage the pain at times and didn't look quite right at the plate either, putting the ball on the ground and struggling to maintain a high quality of contact. Presumably, another offseason of rest is enough to sort out those issues for a 25-year-old who already appears to be on a Hall of Fame track, but what if it isn't? What if old habits die hard, and his mechanics remain screwy? He'd still be a quality Fantasy option but a letdown at third overall.

SEA Seattle • #44 • Age: 23
2022 Stats
AVG
.284
HR
28
RBI
75
R
84
SB
25
AB
511

The Case For: Julio Rodriguez was every bit as advertised as a 21-year-old rookie, delivering 28 homers and 25 steals while also being of help in batting average -- and that was after beginning the year 6 for 44. He went from batting .206 in April to .394 in September, and the hope is that the momentum will carry him to an even bigger sophomore season. And yes, he's an outfielder, which is absolutely what I want my first-round pick to be (with the possible exception of Jose Ramirez).

The Case Against: A bigger sophomore season will be required for Rodriguez to live up to this draft position. As good as he was last year, he was only the 15th-best hitter by our rating system. More concerning is he went from swiping 21 bases in the first half to four in the second, slowing down once the league was on high alert. His plate discipline also isn't up to the level of other first-rounders yet, which presents some performance risk.

PHI Philadelphia • #7 • Age: 30
2022 Stats
AVG
.298
HR
21
RBI
100
R
101
SB
27
OPS
.809

The Case For: Among all the first-rounders, Trea Turner offers the best combination of batting average and stolen bases, which some will tell you are the most critical categories to fill in Round 1. His move to the Phillies combined with the new rules to encourage more base-stealing could even see him return to the 40-steal threshold, which he hasn't reached since 2018. There isn't a single category in which he'll leave you high and dry.

The Case Against: Still, he won't deliver a home run total on the level of most first-rounders, and as we exit an era of more frequent home runs and enter an era of more frequent stolen bases, I would argue that a big home run total is actually more essential than a big stolen base total in Round 1. It's at least closer than most people realize. More than anything, though, he's not an outfielder, and while shortstop remains plentiful into the middle stages of the draft, outfield gets scary fast. Round 1 is the best time to grab one.

NYY N.Y. Yankees • #22 • Age: 25
2022 Stats
AVG
.242
HR
27
RBI
62
R
93
SB
6
OPS
.853

The Case For: This time last year, we were all fully convinced Juan Soto was the best hitter in baseball, and indeed, there's still reason to believe he is. His plate discipline was still other-worldly, with him walking 40 more times than he struck out, and all of that contact he made was still of a particularly high quality, placing him in the 85th percentile for average exit velocity and the 91st percentile for max exit velocity. As a heavily shifted left-handed hitter last year, he should benefit from the shift ban this year and could also get back to running more with the new pickoff limitations in place.

The Case Against: Could, should ... but will he? Even I'm kind of flabbergasted Soto has wound up being my No. 6 player after he hit .242 last year. My initial inclination was to rank both Mookie Betts and Yordan Alvarez ahead of him, but ... well, we'll get to them soon enough. The low batting average wasn't a big deal in points leagues because his plate discipline was so good, but in Roto, it was a season-killer. Again, there's every reason to believe he'll get back to being the .322 hitter he was between 2020 and 2021, but there was every reason to believe he'd be that kind of hitter last year, too.

HOU Houston • #30 • Age: 27
2022 Stats
AVG
.257
HR
30
RBI
107
R
71
SB
25
OPS
.808

The Case For: Kyle Tucker was the only player to reach 30 homers and 25 steals last year, albeit just barely. While he batted only .257, he's just a year removed from batting .294, and his 15.6 percent strikeout rate makes him out to be more of a help than a hindrance in that category. He's in a deep lineup and is a potential five-category contributor at a position that's critical to fill early. 

The Case Against: As first-rounders go, Tucker's numbers are ... fine. He's the guy you take when you don't know who else to take, and because he plays outfield and is currently healthy, he's been forced up a little. Yes, it's true his batting average could bounce back, but it's also true his stolen bases could slip closer to the 14 we saw in 2021, even with the new rules taking effect. He's not particularly fast, and he's not in a lineup that should need to manufacture runs. Plus, manager Dusty Baker prefers to bat him in the bottom half of the lineup, for some reason, which limits his run-scoring potential.

HOU Houston • #44 • Age: 26
2022 Stats
AVG
.306
HR
37
RBI
97
R
95
SB
1
OPS
1.019

The Case For: Yordan Alvarez's percentile rankings on his Statcast page read like Steve Urkel's report card. Mostly 100s, with the occasional 99. He was second only to Judge in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xwOBA and xSLG, and the two stand head and shoulders above the rest of the league in those categories. It's clear you're getting a four-category monster here, leaving you wanting for nothing but stolen bases, and it's possible Alvarez's home run ceiling is closer to Judge's than last year's 37 would suggest.

The Case Against: While expectations are low for Soto and Freddie Freeman, Alvarez is the only first-rounder who'll give you nothing in the way of stolen bases, and you may not like having to play catch-up in that category the rest of the way. (I'd argue that playing catch-up in batting average and home runs is worse, but what do I know?) The real problem is that his hands keep aching, which has to give you pause even though he played through the issue last year and the Astros have said he'll be fine for opening day.

LAD L.A. Dodgers • #50 • Age: 31
2022 Stats
AVG
.269
HR
35
RBI
82
R
117
SB
12
OPS
.873

The Case For: You won't find a more prolific run-scorer than the leadoff hitter for the Dodgers. Mookie Betts always pays off big in those more overlooked counting stats and shouldn't disappoint with his combined home run and stolen base total either. While it may be hard to justify moving him out of the outfield in Fantasy, the expectation is that he'll play more second base this year, and he'd easily be the No. 1 choice at that position.

The Case Against: First of all, the Dodgers lineup likely won't be as formidable this year after losing Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger, so Betts' combined run and RBI total may not be as high as we're used to. And while it's true his combined home run and stolen base total should be fine, it's hard to predict how many he'll have of each. He's fluctuated between 25 and 35 homers for much of his career, and while he hasn't been as prolific of a base-stealer in recent years, maybe he bounces back with the new rules being put in place. He just gives you a lot to wonder about -- not the least of which, by the way, is health.

LAD L.A. Dodgers • #17 • Age: 29
2022 Stats
AVG
.273
HR
34
RBI
95
R
90
SB
11
OPS
.875

The Case For: Shohei Ohtani is a singular talent who should be favored to win MVP every year. A 40-homer, 20-steal season is likely in the offing, and he's improved his strikeout rate enough that he may even be of some help in batting average. And now it's clear that he's just as much of a contender for Cy Young, so if it turns out you need pitching help more, you can just switch him over.

The Case Against: Yeah, but ... you won't. In leagues with weekly lineup locks, at least, you're just going to keep Ohtani at DH all year. The possibility of switching him over is a nice thought, but it's hard to envision a scenario in which you could justify taking a first round-caliber bat out of your lineup. Good bats are hard to find these days, after all. The real problem with taking Ohtani, though, is that you're not meeting a single positional need with your first-round pick at a time when position scarcity is making a comeback. It makes for such a difficult build that I always end up hating my team.

First or third base?

With the 11th and 12th picks, the consensus says you should go with a first baseman, be it Freddie Freeman or Vladimir Guerrero. They're so close that it's basically a matter of preference. Guerrero presumably has the higher ceiling based on what he did in 2021, but Freeman is rock solid and was the No. 3 hitter in Fantasy last year even while falling short in home runs. Freeman is probably safer for batting average, Guerrero for homers, but either could provide either ... or both. I lean Freeman slightly, but I could wake up tomorrow and say otherwise.

Freddie Freeman
LAD • 1B • #5
2022 Stats
AVG.325
HR21
RBI100
R117
SB13
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Vladimir Guerrero
TOR • 1B • #27
2022 Stats
AVG.274
HR32
RBI97
R90
SB8
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The point I really want to drive home here is that, for as good as Freeman and Guerrero are, I'd rather have a third baseman. As with Freeman and Guerrero, it's such a close call between Rafael Devers and Manny Machado that I don't so much care which one. Devers is probably the safer bet for batting average, but Machado has a chance to chip in a few steals.

Rafael Devers
BOS • 3B • #11
2022 Stats
AVG.295
HR27
RBI88
R84
SB3
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Manny Machado
SD • 3B • #13
2022 Stats
AVG.298
HR32
RBI102
R100
SB9
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So why third base over first base? As I've already mentioned, early Round 2 is your best and possibly only chance to get something of quality at the position. It's when Devers, Machado, Austin Riley and Bobby Witt all go off the board. Jose Ramirez is already gone. Nolan Arenado won't make it back to you. You're putting yourself in a desperate spot if you pass over this opportunity. Meanwhile, you'll have myriad opportunities to fill first base later.

My expectation is that Freeman and Guerrero will out produce Devers and Machado, but only slightly -- and it wouldn't be the shock of the century if it was reversed. If you play in a 12-team league, you're probably taking one of each at the turn, so it doesn't much matter whether you go first baseman or third baseman first. But if it's a 10-team league or a 15-team league, know that the third baseman is the higher priority.