The 2024 college football season will debut a realigned national landscape featuring four power leagues stretching further across the country than ever. Additionally, the advent of a 12-team College Football Playoff triples the number of teams in the national title hunt following conference championship week.
Another change taking hold is the eradication of divisions. The ACC went to a single-division format in 2023, and now the Big Ten and SEC are following suit, joining the Big 12, which has been operating without divisions since 2011. Consequentially, schedules that once featured a predictable cadence of division foes now look markedly different. For example: Ole Miss doesn't play Alabama for the first time since 1989, and Penn State doesn't take on Michigan for the first time since 2013.
While the dissolution of divisions is advantageous for some programs, it's a hindrance for others. Northwestern has to play both Ohio State and Michigan in the regular season for the first time since 2013 and can no longer rely on the Big Ten West to provide a steady diet of winnable games.
If the evolving dynamics of college football have you a bit foggy on which win-total plays are the best bets ahead of the 2024 season, we've got you covered here. Over the past two years, I am 7-0 with three pushes on these picks, including a 4-0-1 mark last season. Given that solid track record, we've expanded the menu to eight plays this season.
Notre Dame over 10 wins (-115)
Notre Dame should be more than a touchdown favorite in nine of its 12 games. The Fighting Irish's schedule is bookended with tough tests against Texas A&M and at USC. Otherwise, a Nov. 9 visit from Florida State is the only game that might creep toward toss-up territory on the betting line. A pessimist will note Notre Dame has just six true home games. But there are just three true road games. The Fighting Irish should have plenty of fans in the house for neutral-site games against Georgia Tech (Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium), Navy (New Jersey's MetLife Stadium) and Army (Yankee Stadium in New York). There's also an advantage to the timing of the Texas A&M and USC games. The Aggies will be suiting up for the first time under new coach Mike Elko, while USC's depth could be in a tough spot as the Trojans will be coming off their first-ever Big Ten grind. The Fighting Irish should still be in condition to play physical football -- especially on defense -- when Nov. 30 comes around. It's unclear whether the same will be true about USC.
Colorado under 5.5 wins (+120)
The difficulty of Colorado's schedules in Deion Sanders' first two seasons as coach will go down as arguably the program's greatest hindrance on its path to prominence. This year's slate begins with perennial FCS power North Dakota State, then veers into a pair of road rivalry games against Nebraska and Colorado State, both of which will be motivated to avenge 2023 losses. The Buffs' Big 12 schedule features just one of the bottom four teams in the league's preseason poll as BYU, Houston and Arizona State are all absent. November is particularly tough for a program that is still lacking depth on the lines of scrimmage. The month includes road games against Texas Tech and Kansas as well as home contests against league favorites Utah and Oklahoma State. Colorado may be better than it was last season, but the Buffs will have to earn every victory against a slate that again includes six true road games. With juiced odds, the under is a savvy play.
Boston College over 4.5 wins (-152)
Bowl eligibility is firmly in play for Boston College during coach Bill O'Brien's first season. It's fair to assume road games against Florida State, Missouri and Virginia Tech will be losses. But every other game is winnable for an Eagles team that was fortunate to retain many of its top talents amid the coaching transition. None were more important than quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who has already shown dual-threat promise and now gets the benefit of working with an excellent QB coach in O'Brien. A 4-2 start is firmly in play with winnable games against Duquesne, Michigan State, Western Kentucky and Virginia dotting the season's first half. Three of those four are at home. It should all come down to November and four challenging but winnable games against ACC foes Syracuse, SMU, North Carolina and Pitt. The Orange are also in their first year under a new coach, and SMU will be nearing the end of its first slog through a Power Four schedule. Then, there is UNC and Pitt, who were picked No. 8 and No. 13, respectively, in the league's preseason poll. Three of the four November contests are at home, which gives O'Brien a chance for a strong finish in his return to the college coaching ranks.
Iowa over 8 wins (-115)
The Big Ten's old division format favored the Hawkeyes tremendously as they were able to beat up on Big Ten West foes and didn't have to deal with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State on an annual basis. Though divisions are gone, the 2024 schedule is more of the same for the Hawkeyes. There is no Michigan, no Penn State and no Oregon. An Oct. 5 game at Ohio State looks like the only unwinnable game on Iowa's schedule. In fact, the Hawkeyes might be favored in their other 11 games as potentially tricky foes such as Iowa State, Washington, Wisconsin and Nebraska all visit Kinnick Stadium. The offense should be at least somewhat better under new coordinator Tim Lester. But even if it remains hot garbage, the defense is going to be nasty as always. An eight-win season seems like the worst-case scenario for a well-established program facing such a manageable slate.
Vanderbilt over 3 wins (-125)
Mobile quarterbacks Diego Pavia (New Mexico State) and Nate Johnson (Utah) have transferred in to give the 'Dores some potential offensive dynamism. That was a key ingredient when Vanderbilt beat Kentucky and Florida in consecutive weeks in 2022 with Mike Wright running the show. Nonconference games against Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State provide excellent push insurance. From there, the Commodores would need to pull just a single upset in nine attempts in order to hit the over. Home games against Virginia Tech and South Carolina offer decent opportunities. Road games against Kentucky and Auburn are also within the realm of upset possibility.
UCLA under 5 wins (-115)
There's a reason Chip Kelly left the UCLA head coaching job for the Ohio State offensive coordinator gig. The Bruins face the Big Ten's toughest schedule in their first year in the league, which was going to make a hot seat season particularly unpleasant for Kelly. Instead, DeShaun Foster has been promoted, despite the fact that he's never been more than a running backs coach. Landing respected NFL mind Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator is big. But even the most brilliant of game plans will only go so far during a potentially demoralizing three-week stretch of games at LSU, vs. Oregon and at Penn State. There are six road games on this schedule and not a single gimme. Without Big Ten-caliber star power on the roster, UCLA is ill-equipped to be competitive during a season of major transition.
Rutgers over 6 wins (-130)
Rutgers hit six wins last season with a schedule that included games at Michigan, Iowa and Penn State, in addition to a home game against Ohio State. This time, the Scarlet Knights miss all of the Big Ten's top teams (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon) and get five conference home games. So, even if they lose at Virginia Tech after beating the Hokies at home last season, they should still hit six victories without much trouble. Howard and Akron are easy wins, while Big Ten foes Washington, UCLA and Michigan State are each in Year 1 under new coaches. Even if the Scarlet Knights drop one of those five, they'll still be in a good position to win seven games. In that scenario, they would need to go just 3-4 against the following seven teams in order to hit the over (last year's records in parentheses): Virginia Tech (7-6), Nebraska (5-7), Wisconsin (7-6), USC (8-5), Minnesota (6-7), Maryland (8-5) and Illinois (5-7). With key pieces of a stingy defense returning and star Kyle Monangai at running back, coach Greg Schiano's squad is plenty capable of handling the assignment.
Oklahoma State over 8 (-130)
Oklahoma State won nine regular-season games last season and is near the top of the charts nationally in returning production. Even if the Cowboys falter in back-to-back weeks against Utah and Kansas State to close September, they will be well-positioned to push or hit the over. Though the defense spun its wheels last season in coordinator Bryan Nardo's first year, he now has some Big 12 experience and plenty of familiar personnel to mold an improved unit. Offensively, Alan Bowman is a seasoned veteran at quarterback, and running back Ollie Gordon is one of the top non-quarterback Heisman Trophy contenders. Mike Gundy is the dean of Big 12 coaches and has a team that should challenge for the conference title. Eight wins should be the floor for the Cowboys in 2024.
