A pair of teams on hot streaks square off Monday when the New Mexico State Aggies and Bowling Green Falcons meet in the 2022 Quick Lane Bowl at Detroit's Ford Field. The Aggies won five of their final six games, and the Falcons won four of six to close out the season. New Mexico State (6-6) mauled FCS Valparaiso 56-3 in their finale to earn just its fifth bowl bid -- and second since 1960. Bowling Green (6-6) closed with a 38-14 loss to Ohio but will be playing in their 13th bowl game, and their first since 2015. With expectations low for both teams entering the season, they should be motivated to finish off with a victory.
Kickoff is set for Monday at 2:30 p.m. ET. The Falcons are 3-point favorites in the latest New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under for total points scored is set at 50. Before locking in any Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State picks or Quick Lane Bowl bets, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green and just revealed its Quick Lane Bowl 2022 predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State:
- New Mexico St. vs. Bowling Green spread: Falcons -3
- New Mexico St. vs. Bowling Green over/under: 50 points
- New Mexico St. vs. Bowling Green money line: Aggies +152, Falcons -180
- NMSU: It is 14-10 ATS since the start of the 2020 season
- BG: It is 5-2-1 ATS in its past eight non-conference games
- New Mexico St. vs. Bowling Green picks: See picks here
Why Bowling Green can cover
Bowling Green has been tested much more this season, and the Falcons went 5-3 in the MAC. The Falcons are 3-3 against the spread in their past six and they are 3-2 ATS following a loss this season. The passing game, led by quarterback Matt McDonald, can be dangerous when it gets on a roll. The Falcons average 237 passing yards per game, and the junior has 2,639 yards and 22 touchdown passes this season. Bowling Green is 4-2 when it passes for at least 247 yards.
The Falcons have a couple of notable victories, including a 42-35 shootout win over Toledo. McDonald threw for 395 yards in that game, with receiver Odieu Hiliare putting up 246, as the Falcons upset the eventual MAC champion. They also defeated Marshall just a week after the Thundering Herd upset Notre Dame. The Bowling Green defense counts on big plays and has 37 sacks and 22 takeaways. The Falcons are plus-1 in turnover margin, while NMSU is minus-6.
Why New Mexico State can cover
New Mexico State is 3-0-1 straight-up in bowl games, and defense has been its key to success. The unit allows 343 yards per game (33rd in FBS), while the Falcons offense averages 338 (106th). The Aggies have 27 sacks this season, 7.5 by Lazarus Williams, and Bowling Green has allowed 36. NMSU has been average against the run (80th in FBS) but is 14th in the nation against the pass (185 YPG), so they should be able to take away Bowling Green's strength.
The Falcons average just 101 rushing yards per game, which ranks 121st in the nation. New Mexico State is 5-1 ATS in its past six games and 7-5 ATS overall. The Aggies average 156 yards per game on the ground, and quarterback Diego Pavia comes off one of his best passing games. He threw for 323 yards and a career-best four touchdowns in the 56-3 victory against Valparaiso. Star Thomas is the team's top rusher with 477 yards, and Pavia has run for 443.
How to make New Mexico St. vs. Bowling Green picks
The model has simulated the Quick Lane Bowl matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. The model is leaning Under on the point total, with simulations projecting 49 combined points. The model also has generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in more than 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's Quick Lane Bowl picks at SportsLine.
So who wins the Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State matchup in Monday's Quick Lane Bowl? And which side of the spread is hitting more than 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green spread to back Monday in the Quick Lane Bowl, all from the advanced model that has been crushing its top-rated college football picks, and find out.
