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USATSI

As players rolled back to campus across the country in August, I ranked the top college basketball contenders and separated them into tiers to help sort which teams are good -- and perhaps not so good -- preseason futures bets and values. Incredibly, everyone that read it, including my bosses, agreed it was a perfect list with no flaws. Because of that perfection, I've been tasked with making another contenders list and again separating them into tiers. So nice we had to do it twice. Oh yes. 

Even though the odds from Caesars Sportsbook have shifted slightly since then, Gonzaga again is in its own tier at the top and UCLA remains one of the top dogs. But other teams and odds have moved around ever-so-slightly for this update -- as has some of my opinions. So since I'm committed to giving you what I view as the no-bull guide to betting the field, below is my last stab at that before the season starts next week. So let's jump into it, shall we?

Tier 1: The Gonzaga tier

Team: Gonzaga (6-1)

Gonzaga's odds were at 7-1 in August and that number has already dropped to 6-1. So, yeah, sportsbooks are welcoming the idea that this team -- ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 -- is the class of college basketball this season. For good reason, too. After a 31-1 season that ended with a national runner-up finish, it returns CBS Sports Preseason Player of the Year Drew Timme and senior Andrew Nembhard, among others, while adding No. 1 overall recruit Chet Holmgren to the mix. Don't let Baylor's 86-70 win in the title game dissuade you from jumping on the Zags train.

Tier 2: Ready to be a front-runner

Teams: UCLA (12-1), Purdue (14-1)

UCLA was in this category last go-round so no change here: It gets back Jaime Jaquez and Johnny Juzang and enrolls five-star freshman Peyton Watson. Bruins are title-material coming off a Final Four run. Big change is the addition of Purdue. It has 14-1 odds -- tied for the third-best among all teams behind Gonzaga, Michigan, Villanova and UCLA -- but I'm giving it a Boone Bump here. Jaden Ivey is a star, Zach Edey's breakout is coming and Trevion Williams, as usual, will be a monster. I'm ready to ride this team and willing to go out on a limb and bet them ahead of Michigan, who also is 12-1.

Tier 3: Experienced contenders

Odds: Michigan (12-1), Villanova (12-1), Kentucky (14-1), Kansas (16-1)

Michigan and Villanova both have the second-best odds of winning it all behind rosters that return one of its top-two scorers from a season ago. The nucleus of these two teams don't change much and experience -- and continuity -- should be important.

Then there's transfer experience: what Kentucky and Kansas have. The Wildcats added four players from other institutions who have all found success already. Ditto for Kansas, which landed arguably the biggest name of the bunch in Remy Martin. These two bluebloods should be old and good -- and maybe good because, at least in part, they're old. All four here are viable futures bets I'd make, just know Kentucky's number was once 20-1 so it seems value isn't quite there from back in August. 

Tier 4: My favorite values

Teams: Duke (16-1), Memphis (20-1), UNC (30-1)

Only Memphis of these three schools have seen a shift in odds since last time we did this. (It was 30-1 in August.) I still think all three are intriguing futures bets. Duke because it might have the best player in the country in Paolo Banchero and two talented sidekicks in A.J. Griffin and Trevor Keels. Memphis because, if Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren hit, this team could go nuclear. UNC if for no other reason than a gamble on talent and what a new system might do for the Tar Heels under first-year head coach Hubert Davis. All three are upside plays projecting best-possible outcomes and knowing the ceiling for them is higher than most. 

Tier 5: Longshots to watch

Teams: Tennessee (40-1), Auburn (60-1)

Tennessee's number was 60-1 (!) less than two months ago so the cat is meowing right out of the bag here. Still willing to take a mini flier on this team, though. Victor Bailey and John Fulkerson are back as leaders from a team that earned a No. 5 seed last year and coach Rick Barnes added five-star point guard Kennedy Chandler to the mix to help replace Jaden Springer as well as sharpshooting transfer Justin Powell. Pieces are in place to go from good to real good (or even great). Also very much happy to  take Auburn at 60-1. Great transfer additions with Walker Kessler and K.D. Johnson, great recruiting addition in five-star Jabari Smith and an expected leap into first-round territory of Allen Flanigan when he is able to get healthy. There's a lot to like from a coach in Bruce Pearl who is known for squeezing the best out of his talents.

Tier 6: Stay-aways

Teams: Illinois (18-1), Baylor (20-1)

Allow me to preface by saying: I do not believe these teams are bad nor do I hate these teams. It's actually quite likely that both will be quite good. I'm just not willing to touch them either because I do not like the odds, or don't love the team construction, or a mix of both.

Let's start with the Fighting Illini. Kofi Cockburn is a star. Andre Curbelo should be in for a massive year. Just think we're vastly underestimating how good Ayo Dosunmu was for this team a season ago and how hard it will be to replace some key depth in Adam Miller and Giorgi Bezhanishvili on top of that. 

Baylor I'm just playing the odds. Only twice in the last 30 years has a team repeated as champions and in both instances the team returned at least its top two scorers. The Bears in 2021-22 are replacing their top three scorers. A really good team remains intact -- Baylor is ranked in the top 10 -- I just don't think at 20-1 I'd wager cheddar on it. 

Odds to win 2022 NCAA Tournament 

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook

Gonzaga Bulldogs+600
Michigan Wolverines+1200
Villanova Wildcats+1200
UCLA Bruins+1200
Texas Longhorns+1400
Purdue Boilermakers+1400
Kentucky Wildcats+1400
Duke Blue Devils+1600
Kansas Jayhawks+1600
Ohio State Buckeyes+1800
Illinois Fighting Illini+1800
Memphis Tigers+2000
Baylor Bears+2000
Alabama Crimson Tide+2000
Florida State Seminoles+2500
Michigan State Spartans+3000
North Carolina Tar Heels+3000
Arkansas Razorbacks+3000
Houston Cougars+3000
Virginia Tech Hokies+4000
Tennessee Volunteers+4000
West Virginia Mountaineers+4000
Virginia Cavaliers+4000
Maryland Terrapins+4000
Oregon Ducks+4000
Louisville Cardinals+4000
Wisconsin Badgers+5000
USC Trojans+5000
Arizona Wildcats+5000
LSU Tigers+5000
Texas Tech Red Raiders+5000
Creighton Bluejays+6000
Florida Gators+6000
Connecticut Huskies+6000
Oklahoma Sooners+6000
Auburn Tigers+6000
Indiana Hoosiers+7500
Syracuse Orange+7500
St. Bonaventure Bonnies+8000
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets+10000
Oregon State Beavers+10000
Iowa Hawkeyes+10000
Xavier Musketeers+10000
San Diego State Aztecs+10000
Colorado Buffaloes+10000
Missouri Tigers+10000
Georgetown Hoyas+10000
Arizona State Sun Devils+10000
St. Johns Red Storm+15000
Mississippi State Bulldogs+15000
Loyola Ramblers+15000
Saint Louis Billikens+15000
Clemson Tigers+15000
Wichita State Shockers+15000
Butler Bulldogs+15000
BYU Cougars+15000
Ole Miss Rebels+15000
North Carolina State Wolfpack+15000
Stanford Cardinal+15000
Marquette Golden Eagles+20000
Minnesota Golden Gophers+20000
VCU Rams+20000
Richmond Spiders+20000
Notre Dame Fighting Irish+20000
Penn State Nittany Lions+20000
SMU Mustangs+20000
Belmont Bruins+20000
Texas A&M Aggies+20000
Colorado State Rams+25000
Cincinnati Bearcats+25000
Utah Utes+25000
Providence Friars+30000
Nevada Wolf Pack+30000
Iowa State Cyclones+30000
Georgia Bulldogs+30000
Drake Bulldogs+30000
Pittsburgh Panthers+30000
Boise State Broncos+30000
Miami Hurricanes+30000
Liberty Flames+50000
Dayton Flyers+50000
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs+50000
Wake Forest Demon Deacons+75000
Nebraska Cornhuskers+75000
South Carolina Gamecocks+100000
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers+100000
Buffalo Bulls+100000
Kansas State Wildcats+100000
UNLV Rebels+100000
TCU Horned Frogs+100000
Boston College Eagles+100000
Washington State Cougars+100000
Northwestern Wildcats+100000
Utah State Aggies+100000
UCF Knights+100000
Iona Gaels+100000
Rhode Island Rams+100000
Washington Huskies+100000
Davidson Wildcats+100000
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos+100000
North Texas Mean Green+150000
Marshall Thundering Herd+150000
Saint Mary's Gaels+150000
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles+150000
UMass Minutemen+150000
UAB Blazers+200000
Ohio Bobcats+200000
George Mason Patriots+200000
South Florida Bulls+200000
New Mexico Lobos+200000
South Dakota State Jackrabbits+200000
Vermont Catamounts+200000
Abilene Christian Wildcats+200000
San Francisco Dons+200000
Colgate Raiders+200000
Kent State Golden Flashes+200000
Wright State Raiders+200000
California Golden Bears+200000
Northern Iowa Panthers+200000
Texas State Bobcats+200000
Yale Bulldogs+200000
Duquesne Dukes+200000
Old Dominion Monarchs+200000
Vanderbilt Commodores+200000
Tulsa Golden Hurricane+200000
Furman Paladins+200000
Wyoming Cowboys+200000
Indiana State Sycamores+250000
Akron Zips+250000
Cal Irvine Anteaters+250000
Drexel Dragons+250000
Southern Utah Thunderbirds+250000
Grand Canyon Antelopes+250000
UNC Greensboro Spartans+250000
Toledo Rockets+250000
James Madison Dukes+250000
Little Rock Trojans+250000
DePaul Blue Demons+250000
Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks+250000
Bradley Braves+250000
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers+250000
Charleston Cougars+250000
Hofstra Pride+250000
New Mexico State Aggies+250000
Winthrop Eagles+250000
Loyola Marymount Lions+250000
Eastern Kentucky Colonels+250000
Temple Owls+250000
Missouri State Bears+250000
East Tennessee State Buccaneers+250000
Wofford Terriers+250000
Morehead State Eagles+250000
St Josephs Hawks+250000
Georgia State Panthers+250000
Siena Saints+250000
Cleveland State Vikings+250000
Bowling Green Falcons+250000
Pacific Tigers+250000
Fresno State Bulldogs+250000
Tulane Green Wave+250000
Appalachian State Mountaineers+250000
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns+250000