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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears in Week 11: Game preview, picks, best bets and odds
Could promised Bears’ offensive changes make Chicago a buy-low candidate in NFL betting for Week 11 as the Packers come off the bye?
| WHO | Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears |
| WHEN | Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Soldier Field | Chicago, Illinois |
| HOW | FOX |
If the Chicago Bears’ season is not already sunk, Week 11 against the Packers is surely the last stand, as Green Bay (6-3) currently sits in the final NFC Wild Card playoff spot, with Chicago (4-5) two games back.
The Packers are 6-to-6.5-point road favorites across online sportsbook, with Chicago’s best price on the money line to win the game (as of Tuesday) at +230 via BetMGM. The over/under is set at most outlets at around 41.5 points.
Green Bay had won four in a row before a 24-14 home loss to Detroit going into the Packers’ bye week. Chicago is in turmoil, having lost three games in a row and looking particularly inept in the past two weeks against New England and Arizona, getting outscored by a combined 48-12.
The spread and total have moved significantly from the look-ahead lines, where the Packers were only 3-point favorites and the total was 44.5
Let’s preview this pivotal NFC North rivalry, including the key injuries to monitor, potential changes coming for the Bears, reasons why one might bet either side of the spread, and a best bet for the game.
Key injuries to monitor
Before placing bets, keep an eye on practice reports and the latest updates regarding these ailing players:
Packers injuries
The Packers come off their bye week and should have a much cleaner injury report than the Bears. The four starters to monitor are quarterback Jordan Love (groin), cornerback Jaire Alexander, center Josh Myers and safety Evan Williams.
On Green Bay’s most recent injury report in Week 9, Love tried to play through his groin injury without logging a full participation. Alexander (knee) logged three DNPs and was listed as questionable before being ruled out when inactives were released. Myers (wrist) also logged three DNPs before being listed as doubtful and ruled out prior to the game. Williams (hamstring) did not practice all week and was listed as out on the final Friday injury report. Alexander should have the best chance to return Week 11, considering he was listed as questionable going into Week 9 and the bye week.
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst also said during the bye week that rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd (ankle) will be ready to come off injured reserve soon. He’s another candidate to trend in the right direction this week.
Bears injuries
As for the Bears, Chicago may have major injury issues to contend with again this week, with cluster injuries on the offensive line and another key defensive starter’s status unknown.
Up front, left tackle Braxton Jones (knee) went from DNP to limited to DNP before being ruled out on the final injury report Friday for Week 10 against the Patriots. Right tackle Darnell Wright (knee) did not practice all week and was also ruled out going into the weekend. Meanwhile, right guard Nate Davis (back) was a very rare Sunday morning addition to the injury report. He was ruled out, and then Chicago left guard Teven Jenkins suffered an ankle injury against New England and did not return to the game. So going into Week 11, only center Coleman Shelton begins the week without injury concerns on the offensive line.
In the defensive backfield, safety Jaquan Brisker (concussion) has not played since Week 5 and was still a DNP all week, indicating he had not made more progress into the later stages of the concussion protocol where he’d be allowed to return to the practice field.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers spread | -6.5 (-106) | -6.5 (-110) | -6 (-115) |
| Beats spread | +6.5 (-114) | +6.5 (-110) | +6 (-105) |
| Packers money line | -275 | -285 | -267 |
| Bears money line | +225 | +230 | +215 |
| Over | Over 41.5 (-105) | Over 41.5 (-110) | Over 41(-110) |
| Under | Under 41.5 (-115) | Under 41.5 (-110) | Under 41 (-110) |
Why bet on the Packers
The two main arguments in the Packers’ favor are rest advantage and their opponent is devolving into an organizational/locker room dumpster fire whose bottom may not be able to be fully captured by the NFL betting market.
Green Bay comes off its bye week, which is always an attractive spot for bettors, and the Bears have scored zero touchdowns in two weeks against two bad defenses ranked in the bottom quadrant by EPA per play allowed. Eberflus acknowledged he has heard fans calling for his firing. It seems clear status quo is not an option in Week 11. And on Tuesday morning came the news that Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has been fired.
If the Bears are also still down four-fifths of their starting offensive line, the scheme or coaching staff changes may be moot. The Patriots sacked Chicago QB Caleb Williams nine times … nine! And yet, New England still only ranks 23rd in pressure rate. The Packers pressure the quarterback 24.5% of the time, 13th in the NFL, which should be more than enough to get to Williams if he has not O-line again.
Overall, the Packers defense is allowing -0.05 EPA per play, which ranks among the nine best defenses in the NFL this season. How will Chicago move the ball in this game?
Why bet on the Bears
Any argument in favor of betting on the Bears’ point spread in this game has to begin with a betting market and team power ratings analysis that concludes this is just a buy-low spot and pretty expensive to back the Packers at -6 or more in a road divisional game.
Packers -6 on the road implies the Bears would be +7.5 or +8 on a neutral field against Green Bay. Just a couple of weeks ago, market-derived power rankings would have only made Chicago +4.5 on a neutral field. Has the spread gone too far?
On the field, if you can wrap your head around potential upside for offensive scheme changes (and hopefully a change at offensive coordinator) that work with an injured offensive line, the Packers defense has looked pretty bend-but-don’t-break. Yes, the EPA per play numbers look strong, but the success rate allowed by Green Bay overall is at 46.6% (28th) and 51% by dropback (31st). Green Bay’s rushing success rate allowed isn’t much better at 39.7% (19th).
In the midst of this really bad three-game skid for Chicago, the Bears defense, at least, doesn’t appear to have quit. It is still ranking above average by these advanced metrics overall and by dropback and faces Packers QB Jordan Love, who has been less than stellar this season. Out of 31 quarterbacks with at least 200 plays this season, Love’s -1.3 completion percentage over expected ranks 26th.
Lastly, the calendar has turned to November which requires a check of the weather for every Chicago home game the rest of the season. The very early-in-the-week forecast calls for moderate wind but some potential rain. Any type of winds over 20 miles per hour or precipitation in colder weather has traditionally been a spot that should make bettors nervous about backing bigger road favorites.
Best bet for Packers vs. Bears: Under 41.5 (-110, DraftKings)
This game sounds like a heck of a lot of defense and an ugly NFC North matchup. The Packers offense and Love have not been consistent enough to inspire confidence in consistently moving the ball against a Chicago defense that is still playing well by advanced metrics, even amid a brutal three-game stretch.
For the Chicago offense, scheme and coaching can change but injuries cannot. Just ask the Rams how hard it is to run an offense with cluster injuries on the offensive line. It’s really hard to overcome that. If the Bears are missing multiple offensive linemen again, especially both tackles, does anybody really see the Bears offense scoring a lot of points?
Prediction: Packers 20, Bears 16